Time-series analysis of the impact of short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants on stroke risk among residents in Guiyang City, 2016–2021
- 1School of Basic Medicine, Guizhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
- 2Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention
- 3Guiyang Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Abstract
Background: Stroke is one of the leading causes of death among Chinese residents, and air pollution is a significant environmental risk factor. Currently, research on the association between air pollution and stroke incidence remains limited in low-pollution karst cities in Southwest China. This study aims to evaluate the short-term effects of major air pollutants on stroke incidence in Guiyang City.
Methods: Daily data on stroke incidence, air pollutants, and meteorological conditions for permanent residents of Guiyang from 2016 to 2021 were collected. A time-series analysis was conducted using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on a quasi-Poisson distribution. Long-term trends, meteorological factors, day-of-week effects, and holiday effects were controlled. The relative risk ( RR ) and 95% CI for stroke incidence per 10 μg/m ³ increase in pollutant concentration (CO: 1 mg/m ³ ) were assessed. Single-day and cumulative lag models were used to examine lag effects, and analyses were stratified by gender and age.
Results: A total of 11,517 stroke cases were reported, with a daily average of 5.25 cases. Short-term exposure to PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, and O₃ (per 10 μg/m ³ increase) and CO (per 1 mg/m ³ increase) was positively associated with stroke risk. The RRs (95% CI ) at maximum lag were: PM₂.₅ 1.026 (1.005–1.048), PM₁₀ 1.015 (1.001–1.030), SO₂ 1.075 (1.016–1.137), NO₂ 1.057 (1.017–1.098), O₃ 1.013 (1.003–1.023), and CO 1.346 (1.072–1.691). Women were more sensitive to all six pollutants, especially CO (lag0 RR = 1.548, 95% CI : 1.116–2.147). Older adults (≥65 years) showed increased risk across all pollutants, while only NO₂ and PM₁₀ had statistically significant effects on those <65 years.
Conclusion: Even under low pollution levels, short-term exposure to air pollutants is significantly associated with increased stroke risk with a lag effect, particularly among women and older adults. Strengthening air quality management and protection for high-risk populations is recommended to potentially reduce the burden of stroke.
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BibTeX
@article{zhang2026timeseries,
title = {{Time-series analysis of the impact of short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants on stroke risk among residents in Guiyang City, 2016–2021}},
author = {Ling Zhang and Minmin Su and Shuangfei Zhai and Meiqin Jiang and Xuanhao Chen and Ruifang Liu and Gang Chen and Jianhua Zhang},
journal = {Frontiers in Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2026.1777772},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1777772/full},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Time-series analysis of the impact of short-term exposure to atmospheric pollutants on stroke risk among residents in Guiyang City, 2016–2021
AU - Ling Zhang
AU - Minmin Su
AU - Shuangfei Zhai
AU - Meiqin Jiang
AU - Xuanhao Chen
AU - Ruifang Liu
AU - Gang Chen
AU - Jianhua Zhang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/16
JO - Frontiers in Public Health
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1777772
UR - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1777772/full
AB - Background: Stroke is one of the leading causes of death among Chinese residents, and air pollution is a significant environmental risk factor. Currently, research on the association between air pollution and stroke incidence remains limited in low-pollution karst cities in Southwest China. This study aims to evaluate the short-term effects of major air pollutants on stroke incidence in Guiyang City. Methods: Daily data on stroke incidence, air pollutants, and meteorological conditions for permanent residents of Guiyang from 2016 to 2021 were collected. A time-series analysis was conducted using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on a quasi-Poisson distribution. Long-term trends, meteorological factors, day-of-week effects, and holiday effects were controlled. The relative risk ( RR ) and 95% CI for stroke incidence per 10 μg/m ³ increase in pollutant concentration (CO: 1 mg/m ³ ) were assessed. Single-day and cumulative lag models were used to examine lag effects, and analyses were stratified by gender and age. Results: A total of 11,517 stroke cases were reported, with a daily average of 5.25 cases. Short-term exposure to PM₂.₅, PM₁₀, SO₂, NO₂, and O₃ (per 10 μg/m ³ increase) and CO (per 1 mg/m ³ increase) was positively associated with stroke risk. The RRs (95% CI ) at maximum lag were: PM₂.₅ 1.026 (1.005–1.048), PM₁₀ 1.015 (1.001–1.030), SO₂ 1.075 (1.016–1.137), NO₂ 1.057 (1.017–1.098), O₃ 1.013 (1.003–1.023), and CO 1.346 (1.072–1.691). Women were more sensitive to all six pollutants, especially CO (lag0 RR = 1.548, 95% CI : 1.116–2.147). Older adults (≥65 years) showed increased risk across all pollutants, while only NO₂ and PM₁₀ had statistically significant effects on those <65 years. Conclusion: Even under low pollution levels, short-term exposure to air pollutants is significantly associated with increased stroke risk with a lag effect, particularly among women and older adults. Strengthening air quality management and protection for high-risk populations is recommended to potentially reduce the burden of stroke.
SN - 2296-2565
ER -