A nationwide effect-based assessment of ozone-dominant air pollution risk patterns and ageing-related inequality in China
5 affiliations
- 1College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200093, China; Correspondence to: No. 1239 Siping Road, Yangpu District, Shanghai, 200093, China.
- 2School of Design and Innovation, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200093, China; Department of Design, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, 20158, Italy
- 3Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany; Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China; German Academy of Science and Engineering, Munich, Germany
- 4College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200093, China; Chinese Academy of Engineering, Beijing, China; German Academy of Science and Engineering, Munich, Germany
- 5College of Design and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou, 310014, China; Correspondence to: No. 288 Liuhe Road, Xihu District, Hangzhou 310023, China.
Abstract
Air pollution and urban warming are increasingly intertwined, with heat-enhanced photochemistry making ozone an increasingly important concern for population health even where PM 2.5 has declined. Here we develop an interpretable machine-learning environmental health framework to characterize non-linear long-term exposure-response patterns for cold-season PM 2.5 and warm-season ozone and to compare pollutant-specific risk patterns over time. Using cancer panel data from 813 counties in China (2018–2019) and multi-source exposure and contextual indicators, we estimate model-based reference thresholds and construct threshold-anchored exceedance and normalized excess-hazard indices for cross-year spatiotemporal comparison across 2017–2023. The resulting indicators suggest a divergence in pollutant-related risk patterns, with lower PM 2.5 -related pressure and more prominent ozone-related pressure over time, a pattern consistent with strengthening temperature-O 3 coupling. The spatial pattern of the ozone-dominance index shows clustered hotspots aligned with major urban agglomerations and densely populated corridors, with notable concentrations in the Sichuan-Chongqing urban cluster and the Yangtze River Delta. When combined with population ageing, the ozone-dominance pattern indicates compound vulnerability that is unevenly distributed and increasingly concentrated in higher-ageing urban areas over time, suggesting growing spatial inequality in ozone-related risk patterns. These findings provide effect-anchored indicators for spatiotemporal risk surveillance and environmental safety prioritization under evolving air-pollution regimes.
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BibTeX
@article{he2026nationwide,
title = {{A nationwide effect-based assessment of ozone-dominant air pollution risk patterns and ageing-related inequality in China}},
author = {Zhen He and Jinghao Hei and Otthein Herzog and Zhiqiang Wu and Xiang Li},
journal = {Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecoenv.2026.120945},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2026.120945},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A nationwide effect-based assessment of ozone-dominant air pollution risk patterns and ageing-related inequality in China
AU - Zhen He
AU - Jinghao Hei
AU - Otthein Herzog
AU - Zhiqiang Wu
AU - Xiang Li
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety
DO - 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2026.120945
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoenv.2026.120945
AB - Air pollution and urban warming are increasingly intertwined, with heat-enhanced photochemistry making ozone an increasingly important concern for population health even where PM 2.5 has declined. Here we develop an interpretable machine-learning environmental health framework to characterize non-linear long-term exposure-response patterns for cold-season PM 2.5 and warm-season ozone and to compare pollutant-specific risk patterns over time. Using cancer panel data from 813 counties in China (2018–2019) and multi-source exposure and contextual indicators, we estimate model-based reference thresholds and construct threshold-anchored exceedance and normalized excess-hazard indices for cross-year spatiotemporal comparison across 2017–2023. The resulting indicators suggest a divergence in pollutant-related risk patterns, with lower PM 2.5 -related pressure and more prominent ozone-related pressure over time, a pattern consistent with strengthening temperature-O 3 coupling. The spatial pattern of the ozone-dominance index shows clustered hotspots aligned with major urban agglomerations and densely populated corridors, with notable concentrations in the Sichuan-Chongqing urban cluster and the Yangtze River Delta. When combined with population ageing, the ozone-dominance pattern indicates compound vulnerability that is unevenly distributed and increasingly concentrated in higher-ageing urban areas over time, suggesting growing spatial inequality in ozone-related risk patterns. These findings provide effect-anchored indicators for spatiotemporal risk surveillance and environmental safety prioritization under evolving air-pollution regimes.
SN - 0147-6513
SN - 1090-2414
ER -