Carbonaceous Components Underlying Wildfire Smoke PM2.5-Associated Mortality in Older U.S. Adults.
5 affiliations
- 1Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia30322, United States.
- 2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee37996, United States.
- 3Integrated Computational Earth Sciences Group, Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee37831, United States.
- 4Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia30322, United States.
- 5Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia30322, United States.
Abstract
Wildland fire activity has increased in the U.S., elevating population exposure to smoke-derived fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Emerging studies suggest higher toxicity per unit mass for PM2.5 from wildfire smoke. However, source-resolved evidence on long-term mortality effects of major carbonaceous components in smoke PM2.5 remains scarce. We linked annual, high-resolution estimates of smoke and non-smoke PM2.5 mass and carbonaceous matter to 77,470,752 Medicare beneficiaries during 2002-2019 and fit stratified Cox models. Long-term exposure to smoke PM2.5 mass and its carbonaceous fraction were associated with higher all-cause mortality risk per unit mass than their non-smoke counterparts. Per 1 μg/m3 increase, hazard ratios were 1.032 (95% CI: 1.027-1.037) for smoke PM2.5 mass and 1.087 (1.076-1.098) for smoke carbonaceous components. On the interquartile-range scale, the association was larger for non-smoke PM2.5 than for smoke PM2.5, whereas smoke carbon remained more strongly associated with mortality. Associations were stronger among Black and other racial groups and Medicaid-eligible beneficiaries. Substantial spatial heterogeneity was observed across empirical smoke regimes and geographic regions. The associations correspond to 22,420 annual deaths attributable to smoke PM2.5, with the carbonaceous fraction accounting for most of this burden. These findings support strengthening wildfire smoke health-impact assessment and mitigation as climate change increases population exposure to wildfire smoke.
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BibTeX
@article{jin2026carbonaceous,
title = {{Carbonaceous Components Underlying Wildfire Smoke PM2.5-Associated Mortality in Older U.S. Adults.}},
author = {Zhihao Jin and Ke Xu and Hua Hao and Meng Qi and Gonzalo A Ferrada and Joshua S Fu and Noah Scovronick and Howard H Chang and Alvaro Alonso and Kyle Steenland and Yang Liu},
journal = {Environmental science \& technology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1021/acs.est.6c07219},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42915998},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Carbonaceous Components Underlying Wildfire Smoke PM2.5-Associated Mortality in Older U.S. Adults.
AU - Zhihao Jin
AU - Ke Xu
AU - Hua Hao
AU - Meng Qi
AU - Gonzalo A Ferrada
AU - Joshua S Fu
AU - Noah Scovronick
AU - Howard H Chang
AU - Alvaro Alonso
AU - Kyle Steenland
AU - Yang Liu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - Environmental science & technology
DO - 10.1021/acs.est.6c07219
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42915998
AB - Wildland fire activity has increased in the U.S., elevating population exposure to smoke-derived fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Emerging studies suggest higher toxicity per unit mass for PM2.5 from wildfire smoke. However, source-resolved evidence on long-term mortality effects of major carbonaceous components in smoke PM2.5 remains scarce. We linked annual, high-resolution estimates of smoke and non-smoke PM2.5 mass and carbonaceous matter to 77,470,752 Medicare beneficiaries during 2002-2019 and fit stratified Cox models. Long-term exposure to smoke PM2.5 mass and its carbonaceous fraction were associated with higher all-cause mortality risk per unit mass than their non-smoke counterparts. Per 1 μg/m3 increase, hazard ratios were 1.032 (95% CI: 1.027-1.037) for smoke PM2.5 mass and 1.087 (1.076-1.098) for smoke carbonaceous components. On the interquartile-range scale, the association was larger for non-smoke PM2.5 than for smoke PM2.5, whereas smoke carbon remained more strongly associated with mortality. Associations were stronger among Black and other racial groups and Medicaid-eligible beneficiaries. Substantial spatial heterogeneity was observed across empirical smoke regimes and geographic regions. The associations correspond to 22,420 annual deaths attributable to smoke PM2.5, with the carbonaceous fraction accounting for most of this burden. These findings support strengthening wildfire smoke health-impact assessment and mitigation as climate change increases population exposure to wildfire smoke.
SN - 0013-936X
SN - 1520-5851
ER -