Beyond annual dose: Assessing lifetime cancer risk from dietary radiocesium exposure and public risk-perception gaps in Japan
10 affiliations
- 1State Key Laboratory of Water Pollution Control and Green Resource Recycling, School of the Environment, School of Foreign Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
- 2Institute for Ocean Engineering, Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen 518055, China
- 3Stockholm Environment Institute, Linnegatan 87D, 115 23, Stockholm, Sweden
- 4The George Perkins Marsh Institute, Clark University, Worcester, MA 01610, USA
- 5Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
- 6Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0810, Japan
- 7Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710061, China
- 8China Nuclear Power Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd., China General Nuclear Power Corporation, Shenzhen 518000, China
- 9State Key Laboratory of Water Pollution Control and Green Resource Recycling, School of the Environment, School of Foreign Studies, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China; Corresponding author.
- 10Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 22, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
Abstract
Radiocesium in food poses an ongoing challenge in environmental health risk assessment. Annual dose compliance (1 mSv/year) is essential for radiological protection but may not reflect cumulative lifetime cancer risk (LCR) under chronic exposure or corresponding public risk perceptions. We developed an integrated radiological risk assessment framework to evaluate dietary radiocesium-related health risks and determine whether these estimates align with public risk perceptions. We estimated prefecture-level LCR and risk-perception gaps through multilevel regression and poststratification using a nationwide survey in Japan, together with food-monitoring data on radiocesium concentrations. The annual dietary radiation dose was well below the 1 mSv/year benchmark, while modeled mortality and morbidity LCRs remained above 10 -5 , ranging from 1.84 × 10 -5 to 1.37 × 10 -4 and from 2.70 × 10 -5 to 2.02 × 10 -4 , respectively. The high-risk prefectures, particularly in Tohoku identified in spatial analyses, warrant prioritized monitoring. Agricultural products were the dominant exposure pathway, accounting for approximately 55.0–64.5% of the estimated LCR. Estimated risk tended to exceed perceived risk in northern Japan, indicating a need for proactive risk control, whereas perceived risk tended to exceed estimated risk in central Japan, suggesting a greater need for targeted communication. Our framework supports region-specific monitoring and communication by considering the LCR alongside annual dose metrics.
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BibTeX
@article{liu2026beyond,
title = {{Beyond annual dose: Assessing lifetime cancer risk from dietary radiocesium exposure and public risk-perception gaps in Japan}},
author = {Yuxin Liu and Qian Zhuang and Shipeng Dong and Jingsong Huang and Zhenzhong Hu and Boyang Huang and Guoyi Han and Robert L. Goble and Ana Maria Cruz and Tong Liu and Xiaolin Hou and Yingzhe Du and Liang Mao and Lei Huang and Michael Siegrist},
journal = {Environment International},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.envint.2026.110512},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2026.110512},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Beyond annual dose: Assessing lifetime cancer risk from dietary radiocesium exposure and public risk-perception gaps in Japan
AU - Yuxin Liu
AU - Qian Zhuang
AU - Shipeng Dong
AU - Jingsong Huang
AU - Zhenzhong Hu
AU - Boyang Huang
AU - Guoyi Han
AU - Robert L. Goble
AU - Ana Maria Cruz
AU - Tong Liu
AU - Xiaolin Hou
AU - Yingzhe Du
AU - Liang Mao
AU - Lei Huang
AU - Michael Siegrist
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/24
JO - Environment International
DO - 10.1016/j.envint.2026.110512
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2026.110512
AB - Radiocesium in food poses an ongoing challenge in environmental health risk assessment. Annual dose compliance (1 mSv/year) is essential for radiological protection but may not reflect cumulative lifetime cancer risk (LCR) under chronic exposure or corresponding public risk perceptions. We developed an integrated radiological risk assessment framework to evaluate dietary radiocesium-related health risks and determine whether these estimates align with public risk perceptions. We estimated prefecture-level LCR and risk-perception gaps through multilevel regression and poststratification using a nationwide survey in Japan, together with food-monitoring data on radiocesium concentrations. The annual dietary radiation dose was well below the 1 mSv/year benchmark, while modeled mortality and morbidity LCRs remained above 10 -5 , ranging from 1.84 × 10 -5 to 1.37 × 10 -4 and from 2.70 × 10 -5 to 2.02 × 10 -4 , respectively. The high-risk prefectures, particularly in Tohoku identified in spatial analyses, warrant prioritized monitoring. Agricultural products were the dominant exposure pathway, accounting for approximately 55.0–64.5% of the estimated LCR. Estimated risk tended to exceed perceived risk in northern Japan, indicating a need for proactive risk control, whereas perceived risk tended to exceed estimated risk in central Japan, suggesting a greater need for targeted communication. Our framework supports region-specific monitoring and communication by considering the LCR alongside annual dose metrics.
SN - 0160-4120
ER -