A mechanistic framework for interpreting blood-stage malaria vaccine efficacy
- 1Imperial College London
Abstract
Blood-stage vaccines (BSVs) against malaria offer a promising avenue for reducing parasite burden and transmission, yet their efficacy is challenging to interpret across different trial phases. In this study we develop a simple mechanistic within-host mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia. We fit this model to individual-level data from the phase I/IIa RH5.1 trial and estimate the relationship between vaccine efficacy and RH5 antibody titres, enabling the quantitative prediction of vaccine-impact on public health outcomes. We show that small reductions in erythrocyte invasion rate can lead to substantial decreases in probability of exceeding parasitaemia thresholds and transmission potential. Our framework provides a flexible, biologically motivated method for interpreting early-phase trial data and can inform future trial design, vaccine evaluation and integration into broader malaria control strategies.
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BibTeX
@misc{wood2026mechanistic,
title = {{A mechanistic framework for interpreting blood-stage malaria vaccine efficacy}},
author = {J. R. Wood and J. Challenger and T. Churcher and L. Okell and A. Ghani},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.28.26363670},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.28.26363670v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A mechanistic framework for interpreting blood-stage malaria vaccine efficacy
AU - J. R. Wood
AU - J. Challenger
AU - T. Churcher
AU - L. Okell
AU - A. Ghani
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/28
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.28.26363670
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.28.26363670v1
AB - Blood-stage vaccines (BSVs) against malaria offer a promising avenue for reducing parasite burden and transmission, yet their efficacy is challenging to interpret across different trial phases. In this study we develop a simple mechanistic within-host mathematical model of Plasmodium falciparum asexual parasitaemia. We fit this model to individual-level data from the phase I/IIa RH5.1 trial and estimate the relationship between vaccine efficacy and RH5 antibody titres, enabling the quantitative prediction of vaccine-impact on public health outcomes. We show that small reductions in erythrocyte invasion rate can lead to substantial decreases in probability of exceeding parasitaemia thresholds and transmission potential. Our framework provides a flexible, biologically motivated method for interpreting early-phase trial data and can inform future trial design, vaccine evaluation and integration into broader malaria control strategies.
ER -