Wave and slope thresholds for mangrove restoration and nature-based solution design
8 affiliations
- 1School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne
- 2Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia
- 3School of Natural Sciences, Macquarie University
- 4New South Wales Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development
- 5Monash Indigenous Studies Centre, Monash University
- 6Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne
- 7The University of Melbourne
- 8Climate Change Research Centre, Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales
Abstract
Globally, shorelines are experiencing widespread recession, promoting greater interest in nature-based solutions (NbSs) for coastal protection. Along tropical and sub-tropical coastlines, mangroves are among the habitat-forming species increasingly targeted for nature-based coastal protection. However, practical implementation requires tools that identify shorelines where hydrodynamic and geomorphic conditions are likely to support successful mangrove establishment and long-term persistence. This study quantifies first-order suitability envelopes (hereafter thresholds) for mangrove presence by linking wave height and bathymetric slope to observed mangrove distributions in subtropical wave-dominated barrier estuarine systems. Mangroves were most likely to be present where the 80 th percentile significant wave height ( H s ) was below 0.14 m and bathymetric slope was gentler than 0.01. Above these thresholds, the probability of mangrove occurrence decreased from approximately 23%–25% to 13%–15%, indicating strong but non-exclusive physical controls. Importantly, the probability did not decline to zero beyond these limits, suggesting that mangrove distribution is better described as a suitability threshold rather than a fixed ecological threshold. Spatial analysis indicated that approximately 26% of currently unvegetated shoreline areas in the study fell within the identified wave-slope thresholds, representing potentially suitable but unrealized mangrove habitat. These findings demonstrate that mangrove distribution is partly governed by hydrodynamic and geomorphic processes. While these potential restoration areas are identified based strictly on hydrodynamic and bathymetric thresholds, other critical drivers, such as tidal elevation, sediment supply, and salinity gradients, may further restrict suitable locations. The proposed methods of deriving thresholds in this study provide transferable, process-based criteria for identifying restoration opportunity areas and informing the design of NbSs for coastal resilience in estuarine environments.
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BibTeX
@article{liu2026wave,
title = {{Wave and slope thresholds for mangrove restoration and nature-based solution design}},
author = {Jin Liu and Andrew W M Pomeroy and Brendan S Lanham and Stephen E Swearer and Marco Ghisalberti and Ryan Lowe and Melanie J Bishop and Charlotte Jenkins and Victoria J Cole and Roma O Bodycomb and Sydney A Crisanti and Runjie Yuan and Rui Li and Zhaohui Wang and Shuo Li and Rebecca L Morris},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aebbdd},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aebbdd},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Wave and slope thresholds for mangrove restoration and nature-based solution design
AU - Jin Liu
AU - Andrew W M Pomeroy
AU - Brendan S Lanham
AU - Stephen E Swearer
AU - Marco Ghisalberti
AU - Ryan Lowe
AU - Melanie J Bishop
AU - Charlotte Jenkins
AU - Victoria J Cole
AU - Roma O Bodycomb
AU - Sydney A Crisanti
AU - Runjie Yuan
AU - Rui Li
AU - Zhaohui Wang
AU - Shuo Li
AU - Rebecca L Morris
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/06
JO - Environmental Research Letters
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aebbdd
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aebbdd
AB - Globally, shorelines are experiencing widespread recession, promoting greater interest in nature-based solutions (NbSs) for coastal protection. Along tropical and sub-tropical coastlines, mangroves are among the habitat-forming species increasingly targeted for nature-based coastal protection. However, practical implementation requires tools that identify shorelines where hydrodynamic and geomorphic conditions are likely to support successful mangrove establishment and long-term persistence. This study quantifies first-order suitability envelopes (hereafter thresholds) for mangrove presence by linking wave height and bathymetric slope to observed mangrove distributions in subtropical wave-dominated barrier estuarine systems. Mangroves were most likely to be present where the 80 th percentile significant wave height ( H s ) was below 0.14 m and bathymetric slope was gentler than 0.01. Above these thresholds, the probability of mangrove occurrence decreased from approximately 23%–25% to 13%–15%, indicating strong but non-exclusive physical controls. Importantly, the probability did not decline to zero beyond these limits, suggesting that mangrove distribution is better described as a suitability threshold rather than a fixed ecological threshold. Spatial analysis indicated that approximately 26% of currently unvegetated shoreline areas in the study fell within the identified wave-slope thresholds, representing potentially suitable but unrealized mangrove habitat. These findings demonstrate that mangrove distribution is partly governed by hydrodynamic and geomorphic processes. While these potential restoration areas are identified based strictly on hydrodynamic and bathymetric thresholds, other critical drivers, such as tidal elevation, sediment supply, and salinity gradients, may further restrict suitable locations. The proposed methods of deriving thresholds in this study provide transferable, process-based criteria for identifying restoration opportunity areas and informing the design of NbSs for coastal resilience in estuarine environments.
SN - 1748-9326
ER -