Metabolomic indicators anticipate permafrost peatland ecosystem transition before visible change
7 affiliations
- 1Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA; BIO5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA
- 2Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA
- 3Integrated Discovery Sciences Directorate at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, USA
- 4Analytical & Biological Mass Spectrometry Facility, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA
- 5Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space and Department of Earth Sciences, University of New Hampshire, Durham, USA; Department of Geological Sciences and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
- 6Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, USA
- 7Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA; BIO5 Institute, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA; Corresponding author at: Department of Environmental Science, University of Arizona, Tucson, USA.
Abstract
Climate change is accelerating ecosystem transitions worldwide, yet these changes often go undetected until visible damage occurs. Reliable early warning indicators are therefore needed. Here, we present a chemical indicator framework developed from a decade of permafrost thaw monitoring in subarctic Sweden. We show that declining soil chemical heterogeneity, measured as metabolomic mosaic diversity, preceded the documented collapse of palsa, a permafrost peat mound, at nearby sites by an estimated 2 to 7 years. This decline reflected a simpler metabolomic landscape, in which chemical variation followed fewer dominant biogeochemical gradients. Logistic regression of metabolomic fingerprints further revealed habitat specific chemical signatures. Deep soils kept a palsa signature after surface thaw, which shows that thaw proceeds in layers and in a nonlinear way. Finally, we identified metabolites with ecological functions. Catechin, a natural inhibitor of methane production, declined over time and may link ecosystem change to methane feedbacks. Together, these results show how untargeted metabolomics can be translated into measurable indicators of ecosystem change. Although developed for permafrost systems, this approach addresses a broader need to turn complex biochemical data into practical indicators, explain how ecosystems change, and identify sites that need closer monitoring before visible change occurs.
Related
- Thermal-state transition pathways and spatial differentiation of permafrost in Northeast China
- Scenario-based ecological zoning by coupling ecosystem service value and landscape ecological risk indicators in a rapidly urbanizing river–lake city
- Abrupt stream acidification and metal mobilization from permafrost degradation
- Methane bursts during spring thaw in the permafrost region of Northeast China
- Abrupt permafrost thaw overwhelms vegetation-driven erosion reduction in sediment export on the Tibetan Plateau
BibTeX
@article{yang2026metabolomic,
title = {{Metabolomic indicators anticipate permafrost peatland ecosystem transition before visible change}},
author = {Ben Yang and Gretchen Hall and Viviana Freire-Zapata and Lawrence R. Walker and Ruth K. Varner and Rachel M. Wilson and Malak M. Tfaily},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115709},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115709},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Metabolomic indicators anticipate permafrost peatland ecosystem transition before visible change
AU - Ben Yang
AU - Gretchen Hall
AU - Viviana Freire-Zapata
AU - Lawrence R. Walker
AU - Ruth K. Varner
AU - Rachel M. Wilson
AU - Malak M. Tfaily
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115709
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115709
AB - Climate change is accelerating ecosystem transitions worldwide, yet these changes often go undetected until visible damage occurs. Reliable early warning indicators are therefore needed. Here, we present a chemical indicator framework developed from a decade of permafrost thaw monitoring in subarctic Sweden. We show that declining soil chemical heterogeneity, measured as metabolomic mosaic diversity, preceded the documented collapse of palsa, a permafrost peat mound, at nearby sites by an estimated 2 to 7 years. This decline reflected a simpler metabolomic landscape, in which chemical variation followed fewer dominant biogeochemical gradients. Logistic regression of metabolomic fingerprints further revealed habitat specific chemical signatures. Deep soils kept a palsa signature after surface thaw, which shows that thaw proceeds in layers and in a nonlinear way. Finally, we identified metabolites with ecological functions. Catechin, a natural inhibitor of methane production, declined over time and may link ecosystem change to methane feedbacks. Together, these results show how untargeted metabolomics can be translated into measurable indicators of ecosystem change. Although developed for permafrost systems, this approach addresses a broader need to turn complex biochemical data into practical indicators, explain how ecosystems change, and identify sites that need closer monitoring before visible change occurs.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -