Breast cancer burden risk attribution and productivity loss in Chinese women aged 25 to 49
Abstract
Breast cancer among Chinese women aged 25-49 years has substantial clinical and societal consequences. We integrated Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 1990-2023 with Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022, United Nations population projections, International Labour Organization labour-force participation, and World Bank indicators. Incident cases rose from 50,064 to 87,221, while the weighted death rate declined from 9.25 to 4.72 per 100,000. Demographic changes explained 63.0% of additional cases. In exploratory extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) analyses interpreted with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), the fasting-plasma-glucose-related population attributable fraction (PAF) ranked first in several formulations but weakened after removing age and temporal structure; the selected high-body-mass-index (BMI) PAF series was constant at zero and unrankable. Potential mortality-related productivity loss was US$6.161 billion in 2023. Status-quo projections suggested increasing incidence through 2050 with very wide uncertainty, supporting surveillance and individual-level validation rather than immediate screening policy changes.
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BibTeX
@article{bai2026breast,
title = {{Breast cancer burden risk attribution and productivity loss in Chinese women aged 25 to 49}},
author = {Yang Bai and Jiaqi Zhang and Tian Tian and Ke Wang and Jian Zhang},
journal = {iScience},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.isci.2026.117891},
url = {https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(26)03274-8},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Breast cancer burden risk attribution and productivity loss in Chinese women aged 25 to 49
AU - Yang Bai
AU - Jiaqi Zhang
AU - Tian Tian
AU - Ke Wang
AU - Jian Zhang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/14
JO - iScience
DO - 10.1016/j.isci.2026.117891
UR - https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(26)03274-8
AB - Breast cancer among Chinese women aged 25-49 years has substantial clinical and societal consequences. We integrated Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 1990-2023 with Global Cancer Observatory (GLOBOCAN) 2022, United Nations population projections, International Labour Organization labour-force participation, and World Bank indicators. Incident cases rose from 50,064 to 87,221, while the weighted death rate declined from 9.25 to 4.72 per 100,000. Demographic changes explained 63.0% of additional cases. In exploratory extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) analyses interpreted with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), the fasting-plasma-glucose-related population attributable fraction (PAF) ranked first in several formulations but weakened after removing age and temporal structure; the selected high-body-mass-index (BMI) PAF series was constant at zero and unrankable. Potential mortality-related productivity loss was US$6.161 billion in 2023. Status-quo projections suggested increasing incidence through 2050 with very wide uncertainty, supporting surveillance and individual-level validation rather than immediate screening policy changes.
SN - 2589-0042
ER -