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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Frontiers in Oncology

Dynamic changes in serum carcinoembryonic antigen independently predict disease-free

  • Jing Xue1,2,3
  • Qianqian Men2,3,4,5
  • Xiaofei Tang6
  • Xiaoyu Xie3,4,7
  • Xiaoyan Li1,2,3
7 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Pharmacy, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University
  2. 2Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Colorectal and Pelvic Floor Disease, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University
  3. 3Biomedical Innovation Center, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University
  4. 4Department of General Practice, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University
  5. 5Department of Graceland Medical Center, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University
  6. 6Guangdong Pharmaceutical University
  7. 7Department of Oncology, The Sixth Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University
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Abstract

Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) changes for treatment response in colorectal cancer(CRC) patients receiving CAPOX chemotherapy, providing a reliable indicator for clinical efficacy monitoring.

Methods: Clinical data of CRC patients who first received the CAPOX regimen at the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 1, 2016 and January 31, 2026 were retrospectively collected. Parameters included operation date, chemotherapy administration dates, disease progression (PD) time, preoperative CEA, baseline CEA before chemotherapy, CEA before each cycle, and CEA within three months post-chemotherapy. Disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated. Patients were divided into Group 1: CEA is in the normal range (all values are ≤ 5ng/ml); Group 2: Decreasing or normalization type (not Group 1, and the last valid value ≤ 5ng/ml, or a decrease of ≥20% compared to the individual’s previous peak); Group 3: Persistent or new-onset abnormal type (the rest, that is, the last value > 5 and the decrease from the peak value < 20%). Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan–Meier method, and multivariate Cox regression was used to assess correlations between CEA changes, treatment efficacy, and DFS.

Results: Median DFS (mDFS) was 55.668 months (95% CI: 51.511–58.826) in Group 1 (n=84); 42.271 months (95% CI: 35.438–49.104) in Group 2 (n=47) and 19.980 months (95% CI: 11.198–28.762) in Group 3 (n=11).

Conclusion: Dynamic changes in serum CEA have good predictive value for the efficacy of CAPOX chemotherapy in CRC. This predictive value is primarily significant in TNM Stage III patients and serve as an independent prognostic factor. Patients with decreased or persistently normal CEA levels have a better prognosis.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{xue2026dynamic,
  title = {{Dynamic changes in serum carcinoembryonic antigen independently predict disease-free}},
  author = {Jing Xue and Qianqian Men and Xiaofei Tang and Xiaoyu Xie and Xiaoyan Li},
  journal = {Frontiers in Oncology},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.3389/fonc.2026.1896625},
  url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2026.1896625/full},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Dynamic changes in serum carcinoembryonic antigen independently predict disease-free
AU  - Jing Xue
AU  - Qianqian Men
AU  - Xiaofei Tang
AU  - Xiaoyu Xie
AU  - Xiaoyan Li
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/14
JO  - Frontiers in Oncology
DO  - 10.3389/fonc.2026.1896625
UR  - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2026.1896625/full
AB  - Objective: This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of serum carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) changes for treatment response in colorectal cancer(CRC) patients receiving CAPOX chemotherapy, providing a reliable indicator for clinical efficacy monitoring.  Methods: Clinical data of CRC patients who first received the CAPOX regimen at the Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 1, 2016 and January 31, 2026 were retrospectively collected. Parameters included operation date, chemotherapy administration dates, disease progression (PD) time, preoperative CEA, baseline CEA before chemotherapy, CEA before each cycle, and CEA within three months post-chemotherapy. Disease-free survival (DFS) was calculated. Patients were divided into Group 1: CEA is in the normal range (all values are ≤ 5ng/ml); Group 2: Decreasing or normalization type (not Group 1, and the last valid value ≤ 5ng/ml, or a decrease of ≥20% compared to the individual’s previous peak); Group 3: Persistent or new-onset abnormal type (the rest, that is, the last value > 5 and the decrease from the peak value < 20%). Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan–Meier method, and multivariate Cox regression was used to assess correlations between CEA changes, treatment efficacy, and DFS.  Results: Median DFS (mDFS) was 55.668 months (95% CI: 51.511–58.826) in Group 1 (n=84); 42.271 months (95% CI: 35.438–49.104) in Group 2 (n=47) and 19.980 months (95% CI: 11.198–28.762) in Group 3 (n=11).  Conclusion: Dynamic changes in serum CEA have good predictive value for the efficacy of CAPOX chemotherapy in CRC. This predictive value is primarily significant in TNM Stage III patients and serve as an independent prognostic factor. Patients with decreased or persistently normal CEA levels have a better prognosis.
SN  - 2234-943X
ER  -