Fingerprint Evidence for Human Effects on Climate: Advances After the 2009 Endangerment Finding
4 affiliations
- 1School of Environmental Sciences University of East Anglia Norwich UK
- 2Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA
- 3Department of Atmospheric and Climate Science University of Washington Seattle WA USA
- 4School of GeoSciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK
Abstract
Here we briefly review key advances in the field of climate fingerprinting. Fingerprint studies rely on pattern information to identify human and natural influences on Earth's climate. Our focus is on advances after 2009—the date of the finding by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that emissions of six different greenhouse gases affect Earth's climate and endanger human health and welfare. In contrast to the conclusions from a 2025 review of climate science issued by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), we demonstrate that post‐2009 scientific advances have markedly increased confidence in the identification of significant anthropogenic contributions to global climate change. These advances were enabled by longer and improved observations of climate change, by large single‐model and multi‐model ensembles of simulations that yield estimates of forced climate change signals and natural variability, and by the application of climate fingerprint methods to a wide array of independently monitored variables. Increasingly, scientists are now able to quantify the impact of human‐caused climate change on the probability and intensity of certain types of extreme event, particularly in the case of heat waves and the heavy rainfall in some regions. In tandem with such scientific advances, global warming has also advanced: the post‐2009 period included the 10 warmest years in instrumental surface temperature records, enhancing the signal of human‐caused warming relative to intrinsic variability. The evidence for pervasive human fingerprints throughout Earth's climate system is incontrovertible.
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BibTeX
@article{santer2026fingerprint,
title = {{Fingerprint Evidence for Human Effects on Climate: Advances After the 2009 Endangerment Finding}},
author = {Benjamin D. Santer and Susan Solomon and David W. J. Thompson and Qiang Fu and Gabriele C. Hegerl},
journal = {Earth's Future},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1029/2026ef009129},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef009129},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Fingerprint Evidence for Human Effects on Climate: Advances After the 2009 Endangerment Finding
AU - Benjamin D. Santer
AU - Susan Solomon
AU - David W. J. Thompson
AU - Qiang Fu
AU - Gabriele C. Hegerl
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/28
JO - Earth's Future
DO - 10.1029/2026ef009129
UR - https://doi.org/10.1029/2026ef009129
AB - Here we briefly review key advances in the field of climate fingerprinting. Fingerprint studies rely on pattern information to identify human and natural influences on Earth's climate. Our focus is on advances after 2009—the date of the finding by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that emissions of six different greenhouse gases affect Earth's climate and endanger human health and welfare. In contrast to the conclusions from a 2025 review of climate science issued by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), we demonstrate that post‐2009 scientific advances have markedly increased confidence in the identification of significant anthropogenic contributions to global climate change. These advances were enabled by longer and improved observations of climate change, by large single‐model and multi‐model ensembles of simulations that yield estimates of forced climate change signals and natural variability, and by the application of climate fingerprint methods to a wide array of independently monitored variables. Increasingly, scientists are now able to quantify the impact of human‐caused climate change on the probability and intensity of certain types of extreme event, particularly in the case of heat waves and the heavy rainfall in some regions. In tandem with such scientific advances, global warming has also advanced: the post‐2009 period included the 10 warmest years in instrumental surface temperature records, enhancing the signal of human‐caused warming relative to intrinsic variability. The evidence for pervasive human fingerprints throughout Earth's climate system is incontrovertible.
SN - 2328-4277
ER -