Transport-injury burden among children and adolescents in the Western Pacific Region, 2000-2023, with projections to 2035.
4 affiliations
- 1Department of Emergency and Disaster Medicine Center, the Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.
- 2University Center of Orthopaedic, Trauma and Plastic Surgery, University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus at TUD Dresden University of Technology, Dresden, Germany.
- 3Department of Orthopedic Medical Center, Hunan Provincial People's Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital of Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
- 4Department of Spine, the Seventh Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.
Abstract
Transport injuries remain a major preventable cause of death and disability among children and adolescents. Evidence on long-term trends, geographic inequalities, and future burden across the Western Pacific Region (WPR) remains limited. We assessed transport-injury burden among people aged <20 years in the WPR from 2000 to 2023 and projected trends to 2035. We analysed Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 estimates for 33 WPR countries and territories. We assessed incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2000 to 2023. We mapped 2023 age-standardised rates, examined four age groups by sex, and decomposed changes into demographic and epidemiological components. Sex-specific autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to project age-standardised outcomes from 2024 to 2035. Incident cases decreased from 5,034,407 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 4,180,502-5,955,077] in 2000 to 2,433,402 (1,988,777-2,920,981) in 2023. The age-standardised incidence rate fell from 812.69 to 428.74 per 100,000. The annual percentage change was -2.82% (95% confidence interval, -3.04 to -2.61; P < 0.001). In 2023, incidence varied 4.48-fold and mortality varied 38.2-fold across locations. Males aged 15-19 years had higher incidence, mortality, and DALY rates than females of the same age. Epidemiological change drove most of the regional reduction. Between 2024 and 2035, ARIMA models projected male age-standardised incidence and prevalence rates to decline modestly, while female rates remained nearly stable. Mortality and DALY projections crossed zero and were excluded from quantitative interpretation. The transport-injury burden among children and adolescents in the WPR decreased substantially, but marked geographic and age-sex inequalities persisted. The 2024-2035 projections suggest that non-fatal burden may decline only modestly, with little change among females. Prevention should prioritise older adolescent males and high-mortality settings, while longer-term policy planning requires more robust forecasting.
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BibTeX
@article{sun2026transportinjury,
title = {{Transport-injury burden among children and adolescents in the Western Pacific Region, 2000-2023, with projections to 2035.}},
author = {Rongxiang Sun and Qinglong Jian and Chen Ye and Quanneng Luo and Kenyou Zhou and Huilong Guo and Guohua Wang and Chuncheung Chan},
journal = {Frontiers in pediatrics},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fped.2026.1946652},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42953631},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Transport-injury burden among children and adolescents in the Western Pacific Region, 2000-2023, with projections to 2035.
AU - Rongxiang Sun
AU - Qinglong Jian
AU - Chen Ye
AU - Quanneng Luo
AU - Kenyou Zhou
AU - Huilong Guo
AU - Guohua Wang
AU - Chuncheung Chan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/14
JO - Frontiers in pediatrics
DO - 10.3389/fped.2026.1946652
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42953631
AB - Transport injuries remain a major preventable cause of death and disability among children and adolescents. Evidence on long-term trends, geographic inequalities, and future burden across the Western Pacific Region (WPR) remains limited. We assessed transport-injury burden among people aged <20 years in the WPR from 2000 to 2023 and projected trends to 2035. We analysed Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 estimates for 33 WPR countries and territories. We assessed incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2000 to 2023. We mapped 2023 age-standardised rates, examined four age groups by sex, and decomposed changes into demographic and epidemiological components. Sex-specific autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to project age-standardised outcomes from 2024 to 2035. Incident cases decreased from 5,034,407 [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 4,180,502-5,955,077] in 2000 to 2,433,402 (1,988,777-2,920,981) in 2023. The age-standardised incidence rate fell from 812.69 to 428.74 per 100,000. The annual percentage change was -2.82% (95% confidence interval, -3.04 to -2.61; P < 0.001). In 2023, incidence varied 4.48-fold and mortality varied 38.2-fold across locations. Males aged 15-19 years had higher incidence, mortality, and DALY rates than females of the same age. Epidemiological change drove most of the regional reduction. Between 2024 and 2035, ARIMA models projected male age-standardised incidence and prevalence rates to decline modestly, while female rates remained nearly stable. Mortality and DALY projections crossed zero and were excluded from quantitative interpretation. The transport-injury burden among children and adolescents in the WPR decreased substantially, but marked geographic and age-sex inequalities persisted. The 2024-2035 projections suggest that non-fatal burden may decline only modestly, with little change among females. Prevention should prioritise older adolescent males and high-mortality settings, while longer-term policy planning requires more robust forecasting.
SN - 2296-2360
ER -