Climate mitigation contributes more to population persistence than evolutionary adaptation in a long-lived seabird
Abstract
Evolutionary rescue-the process by which adaptive evolution prevents population extinction following environmental deterioration -is frequently proposed as a buffer against biodiversity loss under climate change, yet its capacity to alter future population trajectories is rarely assessed quantitatively. Most forecasts of evolutionary rescue rely on simplified demographic models, focus on a single adaptive trait, and explore hypothetical environmental scenarios rather than standardized climate pathways, neglecting uncertainty from demographic and internal climate variability. We developed a hyperstate eco-evolutionary population model coupled with large ensembles of climate projections from global climate models to test whether evolutionary adaptation or climate mitigation (through reduced greenhouse gas emissions) can prevent declines in a threatened seabird, the black-browed albatross. We parameterized this framework using three decades of demographic and phenotypic data, while propagating uncertainty from demographic processes and natural climate variability in climate projections. We modeled selection on morphological, behavioral, and phenological traits affecting different life-cycle components across climate scenarios. Across climate scenarios, evolution increased population size under stationary historical climates but failed to prevent decline under projected warming. Increasing heritability had little effect on extinction risk, whereas climate mitigation reduced extinction probability by approximately half. Evolutionary rescue occurred only under the most optimistic climate scenario when climate change directly strengthened selection on wing length, a trait affecting juvenile survival. Our results reveal limits to evolutionary rescue under environmental change.
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BibTeX
@article{jenouvrier2026climate,
title = {{Climate mitigation contributes more to population persistence than evolutionary adaptation in a long-lived seabird}},
author = {Stéphanie Jenouvrier and Jimmy Garnier and Marika Holland and Joanie van de Walle and Samantha Patrick and Timothée Bonnet and Karine Delord and Francesco Ventura and Christophe Barbraud and Henri Weimerskirch},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2620362123},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05765554v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate mitigation contributes more to population persistence than evolutionary adaptation in a long-lived seabird
AU - Stéphanie Jenouvrier
AU - Jimmy Garnier
AU - Marika Holland
AU - Joanie van de Walle
AU - Samantha Patrick
AU - Timothée Bonnet
AU - Karine Delord
AU - Francesco Ventura
AU - Christophe Barbraud
AU - Henri Weimerskirch
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/21
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2620362123
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05765554v1
AB - Evolutionary rescue-the process by which adaptive evolution prevents population extinction following environmental deterioration -is frequently proposed as a buffer against biodiversity loss under climate change, yet its capacity to alter future population trajectories is rarely assessed quantitatively. Most forecasts of evolutionary rescue rely on simplified demographic models, focus on a single adaptive trait, and explore hypothetical environmental scenarios rather than standardized climate pathways, neglecting uncertainty from demographic and internal climate variability. We developed a hyperstate eco-evolutionary population model coupled with large ensembles of climate projections from global climate models to test whether evolutionary adaptation or climate mitigation (through reduced greenhouse gas emissions) can prevent declines in a threatened seabird, the black-browed albatross. We parameterized this framework using three decades of demographic and phenotypic data, while propagating uncertainty from demographic processes and natural climate variability in climate projections. We modeled selection on morphological, behavioral, and phenological traits affecting different life-cycle components across climate scenarios. Across climate scenarios, evolution increased population size under stationary historical climates but failed to prevent decline under projected warming. Increasing heritability had little effect on extinction risk, whereas climate mitigation reduced extinction probability by approximately half. Evolutionary rescue occurred only under the most optimistic climate scenario when climate change directly strengthened selection on wing length, a trait affecting juvenile survival. Our results reveal limits to evolutionary rescue under environmental change.
SN - 0027-8424
SN - 1091-6490
ER -