Short term associations of weather and air quality with ophthalmic outpatient attendance in eastern China
- 1Department of Ophthalmology, Northern Jiangsu People’s Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University
- 2Department of Biobank, Northern Jiangsu People’s Hospital Affiliated to Yangzhou University
Abstract
The magnitude and timing of short-term associations of weather and air quality with ophthalmic attendance remain poorly quantified. We analysed completed attendances from a tertiary ophthalmology department in Jiangsu, China (2015–2025; 3,788 days) using a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional Poisson regression. Exposures included catchment-weighted meteorology, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅); extreme heat, cold, and heavy rainfall were accumulated over 0–3 and 0–7 days. Over 0–3 days, each additional extreme-heat or heavy-rainfall day was associated with lower completed attendance (rate ratios 0.961 [95% CI 0.954–0.967] and 0.937 [95% CI 0.923–0.952], respectively; both p < 0.0001), whereas extreme cold showed no clear association. From a baseline of 293 visits/day, two heat days and two heavy-rainfall days corresponded to approximately 23 and 36 fewer visits/day, respectively. Lag analyses suggested delayed positive rainfall associations compatible with partial compensation, but no comparable heat pattern within 21 days. The retrospective trigger simulation had 39% precision and 59% recall; approximately 61% of triggered days were false alarms. Locally derived heat thresholds and rainfall amount-related estimates may support preparedness planning. Because completed attendance—not underlying ophthalmic need—was measured, real-time use requires prospective validation of safety, equity, and unmet-need outcomes.
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BibTeX
@article{yang2026short,
title = {{Short term associations of weather and air quality with ophthalmic outpatient attendance in eastern China}},
author = {Tian Yang and Chen Qin and Li Ding and Jie Zhu},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-64134-2},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-64134-2},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Short term associations of weather and air quality with ophthalmic outpatient attendance in eastern China
AU - Tian Yang
AU - Chen Qin
AU - Li Ding
AU - Jie Zhu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/01
JO - Scientific Reports
DO - 10.1038/s41598-026-64134-2
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-64134-2
AB - The magnitude and timing of short-term associations of weather and air quality with ophthalmic attendance remain poorly quantified. We analysed completed attendances from a tertiary ophthalmology department in Jiangsu, China (2015–2025; 3,788 days) using a time-stratified case-crossover design with conditional Poisson regression. Exposures included catchment-weighted meteorology, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅); extreme heat, cold, and heavy rainfall were accumulated over 0–3 and 0–7 days. Over 0–3 days, each additional extreme-heat or heavy-rainfall day was associated with lower completed attendance (rate ratios 0.961 [95% CI 0.954–0.967] and 0.937 [95% CI 0.923–0.952], respectively; both p < 0.0001), whereas extreme cold showed no clear association. From a baseline of 293 visits/day, two heat days and two heavy-rainfall days corresponded to approximately 23 and 36 fewer visits/day, respectively. Lag analyses suggested delayed positive rainfall associations compatible with partial compensation, but no comparable heat pattern within 21 days. The retrospective trigger simulation had 39% precision and 59% recall; approximately 61% of triggered days were false alarms. Locally derived heat thresholds and rainfall amount-related estimates may support preparedness planning. Because completed attendance—not underlying ophthalmic need—was measured, real-time use requires prospective validation of safety, equity, and unmet-need outcomes.
SN - 2045-2322
ER -