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Peer-reviewedCC BYScience Advances

How climate change affects mosquito-borne infectious disease: The different trajectories of malaria and dengue

  • Toby B Cumming1,2
  • Henry Surendra1,3
  • Karin Leder1,2
  • Katherine L. Anders1,2
  1. 1Health and Climate Initiative, Faculty of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
  2. 2Division of Planetary Health, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
  3. 3Infectious and Tropical Diseases Epidemiology, Public Health Program, Monash University Indonesia, Tangerang, Indonesia.
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Abstract

As climate change increases temperatures, additional warmth combines with rainfall and humidity to enhance conditions for mosquito populations to thrive. Greater spread of Anopheles and Aedes vectors increases the risk of transmission of the world’s most prevalent mosquito-borne infectious diseases, malaria and dengue. Yet the impacts of climate drivers on disease transmission are complex: Relationships are nonlinear, effects are seasonal, and there is substantial local variability. Further complexity is added by the many nonclimate factors that influence disease transmission, including movement of people, population growth, immunity levels, land use change, urbanization, control interventions, and quality of health care systems. Here, we explain why, despite climate drivers having broadly similar effects on malaria and dengue transmission parameters, the trajectories of the two diseases differ, with rapid growth in dengue but long-term decline in malaria.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{cumming2026climate,
  title = {{How climate change affects mosquito-borne infectious disease: The different trajectories of malaria and dengue}},
  author = {Toby B Cumming and Henry Surendra and Karin Leder and Katherine L. Anders},
  journal = {Science Advances},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aei0953},
  url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aei0953},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - How climate change affects mosquito-borne infectious disease: The different trajectories of malaria and dengue
AU  - Toby B Cumming
AU  - Henry Surendra
AU  - Karin Leder
AU  - Katherine L. Anders
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/02
JO  - Science Advances
DO  - 10.1126/sciadv.aei0953
UR  - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aei0953
AB  - As climate change increases temperatures, additional warmth combines with rainfall and humidity to enhance conditions for mosquito populations to thrive. Greater spread of Anopheles and Aedes vectors increases the risk of transmission of the world’s most prevalent mosquito-borne infectious diseases, malaria and dengue. Yet the impacts of climate drivers on disease transmission are complex: Relationships are nonlinear, effects are seasonal, and there is substantial local variability. Further complexity is added by the many nonclimate factors that influence disease transmission, including movement of people, population growth, immunity levels, land use change, urbanization, control interventions, and quality of health care systems. Here, we explain why, despite climate drivers having broadly similar effects on malaria and dengue transmission parameters, the trajectories of the two diseases differ, with rapid growth in dengue but long-term decline in malaria.
SN  - 2375-2548
ER  -