Humidex-related risk of other infectious diarrhea in Anhui, China: a multi-city study on spatial heterogeneity and socioeconomic modifiers
- 1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
Abstract
Background: Climate change may influence the transmission dynamics of enteric pathogens through changes in temperature, humidity, precipitation, and environmental exposure. Humid heat poses a significant threat, yet its synergistic impact on Other Infectious Diarrhea (OID) remains under-characterized. This study quantifies humid-heat-related OID risks and investigates the socioeconomic determinants driving spatial vulnerability in Anhui, China.
Methods: Daily data on OID cases (n = 822,220) and meteorological variables were collected from 16 cities in Anhui Province (2015–2023). We employed a two-stage strategy: city-specific distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to estimate exposure-response associations, followed by multivariate meta-regression to evaluate geographical and socioeconomic effect modifiers. Spatial clustering was quantified using Global Moran’s I statistics.
Results: The association between Humidex and OID was non-linear, with significant spatial clustering that intensified over time (Moran’s I: 0.36–0.47, P < 0.001). Substantial heterogeneity was observed (I² = 70.03%), masking marked disparities: less-developed northern cities faced significantly higher risks (e.g., Bengbu, RR = 2.08) and larger disease burdens (e.g., Suzhou, AN = 7,671) than southern counterparts. Multivariate meta-regression identified urbanization rate, GDP per capita, and latitude as the primary drivers of this regional heterogeneity.
Conclusion: Humid-heat-related OID risk is structurally modulated by socioeconomic development. Urbanization and economic capacity act as critical buffers, highlighting an “adaptation deficit” in less-developed regions. Public health interventions should prioritize high-risk northern hotspots to mitigate climate-driven health inequities.
Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-28928-3.
Related
- Role of Bile Acid Receptors in Non-Infectious Diarrhea: A Narrative Review.
- Socioeconomic inequalities in biological age: multidimensional gradients and cross-national heterogeneity in SHARE
- Spatial–temporal heterogeneity in tuberculosis incidence and its association with socioeconomic factors in South Sulawesi
- Telomere length and prevalent chronic lung disease in middle-aged and older adults: socioeconomic heterogeneity and early-life tobacco exposure in the health and retirement study
- Development of Custodial Staff Modifiers for Safewards Secure‐Custodial Mental Health
BibTeX
@article{gao2026humidexrelated,
title = {{Humidex-related risk of other infectious diarrhea in Anhui, China: a multi-city study on spatial heterogeneity and socioeconomic modifiers}},
author = {Meng Gao and Jinling Song and Jingyu Wu and Siqi Xu and Liping Gong and Yongsheng Ye and Yangguang Wang and Jian Cheng and Yinguang Fan},
journal = {BMC Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.1186/s12889-026-28928-3},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-28928-3},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Humidex-related risk of other infectious diarrhea in Anhui, China: a multi-city study on spatial heterogeneity and socioeconomic modifiers
AU - Meng Gao
AU - Jinling Song
AU - Jingyu Wu
AU - Siqi Xu
AU - Liping Gong
AU - Yongsheng Ye
AU - Yangguang Wang
AU - Jian Cheng
AU - Yinguang Fan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/07
JO - BMC Public Health
DO - 10.1186/s12889-026-28928-3
UR - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-28928-3
AB - Background: Climate change may influence the transmission dynamics of enteric pathogens through changes in temperature, humidity, precipitation, and environmental exposure. Humid heat poses a significant threat, yet its synergistic impact on Other Infectious Diarrhea (OID) remains under-characterized. This study quantifies humid-heat-related OID risks and investigates the socioeconomic determinants driving spatial vulnerability in Anhui, China. Methods: Daily data on OID cases (n = 822,220) and meteorological variables were collected from 16 cities in Anhui Province (2015–2023). We employed a two-stage strategy: city-specific distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to estimate exposure-response associations, followed by multivariate meta-regression to evaluate geographical and socioeconomic effect modifiers. Spatial clustering was quantified using Global Moran’s I statistics. Results: The association between Humidex and OID was non-linear, with significant spatial clustering that intensified over time (Moran’s I: 0.36–0.47, P < 0.001). Substantial heterogeneity was observed (I² = 70.03%), masking marked disparities: less-developed northern cities faced significantly higher risks (e.g., Bengbu, RR = 2.08) and larger disease burdens (e.g., Suzhou, AN = 7,671) than southern counterparts. Multivariate meta-regression identified urbanization rate, GDP per capita, and latitude as the primary drivers of this regional heterogeneity. Conclusion: Humid-heat-related OID risk is structurally modulated by socioeconomic development. Urbanization and economic capacity act as critical buffers, highlighting an “adaptation deficit” in less-developed regions. Public health interventions should prioritize high-risk northern hotspots to mitigate climate-driven health inequities. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-28928-3.
SN - 1471-2458
ER -