A Stage-Structured Deterministic Model of Fall Armyworm Infestation on Maize Farming
Abstract
Fall Armyworm (FAW) poses a serious threat to maize production in many regions due to its aggressive feeding habits and rapid development cycle. In this study, we developed and analyzed a stage-structured mathematical model to evaluate the impact of different FAW larval instars on maize dynamics during the vegetative and reproductive stages. Analytical results indicate that the two models have unique and positively bounded solutions for all time t≥ 0 and admit four equilibrium points: the trivial, non-trivial, maize extinction and coexistence equilibria. The behavior of the model was studied using stability analysis to find conditions under which FAW dies out or continues to spread. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to examine how key parameters affect FAW population dynamics and maize. Numerical simulations of the model in both stages indicate that there is high destruction of maize plants in both vegetative and reproductive stages of maize production due to increased egg production and larval population density. The extensive damage caused by large populations of eggs, larvae and adult moths motivated an extension of the two models to include intervention measures such as traditional methods like handpicking and chemical pesticides. Numerical results indicate that these control strategies significantly suppressed the FAW population with a resultant increase in the maize plant population towards its maximum capacity during the vegetative and reproductive stages, respectively.
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BibTeX
@misc{ojwang2026stagestructured,
title = {{A Stage-Structured Deterministic Model of Fall Armyworm Infestation on Maize Farming}},
author = {Donald Okoth Ojwang and Mamadou Pathe Ly and Shaibu Osman},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.39809},
eprint = {2609.39809},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39809},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A Stage-Structured Deterministic Model of Fall Armyworm Infestation on Maize Farming
AU - Donald Okoth Ojwang
AU - Mamadou Pathe Ly
AU - Shaibu Osman
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/30
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.39809
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.39809
AB - Fall Armyworm (FAW) poses a serious threat to maize production in many regions due to its aggressive feeding habits and rapid development cycle. In this study, we developed and analyzed a stage-structured mathematical model to evaluate the impact of different FAW larval instars on maize dynamics during the vegetative and reproductive stages. Analytical results indicate that the two models have unique and positively bounded solutions for all time t≥ 0 and admit four equilibrium points: the trivial, non-trivial, maize extinction and coexistence equilibria. The behavior of the model was studied using stability analysis to find conditions under which FAW dies out or continues to spread. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to examine how key parameters affect FAW population dynamics and maize. Numerical simulations of the model in both stages indicate that there is high destruction of maize plants in both vegetative and reproductive stages of maize production due to increased egg production and larval population density. The extensive damage caused by large populations of eggs, larvae and adult moths motivated an extension of the two models to include intervention measures such as traditional methods like handpicking and chemical pesticides. Numerical results indicate that these control strategies significantly suppressed the FAW population with a resultant increase in the maize plant population towards its maximum capacity during the vegetative and reproductive stages, respectively.
ER -