Climate risk and health expenditure: extreme drought in herb-producing regions and the price of Chinese medicine
- 1School of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Beijing University of Chinese Medicine
- 2School of Medicine, Southern University of Science and Technology
Abstract
Introduction: Climate risk is understood to raise health expenditure by increasing illness and the demand for care. A second route has received little attention. Botanical medicines are grown, so climatic stress where they are cultivated alters the cost of a medical input and may raise what households and insurers pay even when population health is unchanged. This study examines that route in China.
Methods: We assemble a monthly national price index for Chinese medicinal materials, official consumer price indices (CPIs) for Chinese medicine, Western medicine and medical services, and a provincial panel of household health expenditure. Climatic stress is measured as a standardized accumulated water deficit and weighted twice over the same events, by herb-producing area and by population, separating the input-cost route from the illness route. Estimation is by local projection with season-preserving permutation inference, supported by falsification, influence and confounding analyses.
Results: Extreme drought in herb-producing regions is associated with a rise in the wholesale price of medicinal materials of about 10–20 percent over 6–18 months and in the consumer price of Chinese medicine of about 2–4 percent. Western medicine and medical service prices show no comparable rise, and the same deficit weighted by population is unrelated to either. The association is robust to alternative thresholds, sample periods and controls for health-sector inflation and regulatory reform. Rural household expenditure responds more strongly than urban.
Discussion: Climate risk is linked to health budgets through the supply chain for medical inputs as well as through morbidity, with implications for reserve policy, reimbursement design and financial protection of households.
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BibTeX
@article{su2026climate,
title = {{Climate risk and health expenditure: extreme drought in herb-producing regions and the price of Chinese medicine}},
author = {Ai-Hsuan Su and Mingke Yuan},
journal = {Frontiers in Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fpubh.2026.1999525},
url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1999525/full},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate risk and health expenditure: extreme drought in herb-producing regions and the price of Chinese medicine
AU - Ai-Hsuan Su
AU - Mingke Yuan
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/29
JO - Frontiers in Public Health
DO - 10.3389/fpubh.2026.1999525
UR - https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1999525/full
AB - Introduction: Climate risk is understood to raise health expenditure by increasing illness and the demand for care. A second route has received little attention. Botanical medicines are grown, so climatic stress where they are cultivated alters the cost of a medical input and may raise what households and insurers pay even when population health is unchanged. This study examines that route in China. Methods: We assemble a monthly national price index for Chinese medicinal materials, official consumer price indices (CPIs) for Chinese medicine, Western medicine and medical services, and a provincial panel of household health expenditure. Climatic stress is measured as a standardized accumulated water deficit and weighted twice over the same events, by herb-producing area and by population, separating the input-cost route from the illness route. Estimation is by local projection with season-preserving permutation inference, supported by falsification, influence and confounding analyses. Results: Extreme drought in herb-producing regions is associated with a rise in the wholesale price of medicinal materials of about 10–20 percent over 6–18 months and in the consumer price of Chinese medicine of about 2–4 percent. Western medicine and medical service prices show no comparable rise, and the same deficit weighted by population is unrelated to either. The association is robust to alternative thresholds, sample periods and controls for health-sector inflation and regulatory reform. Rural household expenditure responds more strongly than urban. Discussion: Climate risk is linked to health budgets through the supply chain for medical inputs as well as through morbidity, with implications for reserve policy, reimbursement design and financial protection of households.
SN - 2296-2565
ER -