Hour-scale response of low-Earth-orbit satellite altitude to extreme geomagnetic storms revealed by the NinjaSat CubeSat during the 2024 solar maximum
Abstract
Extreme geomagnetic storms accelerate low-Earth-orbit satellite decay by inflating the thermosphere, yet the hour-scale pathway from solar-wind energy to atmospheric heating is poorly understood. Using the GNSS receiver of the NinjaSat CubeSat ( ∼ 500 km, 97∘ sun-synchronous), we tracked orbital altitude through solar-maximum 2024 and cross-correlated the storm-time altitude-change rate with geomagnetic indices during the two largest storms of the year. The EUV-corrected residual correlates with the polar-cap (PC) index at r≳ 0.8 , PC leading or coincident with the response by up to ∼ 3 h, as do the auroral electrojet indices AE and AL. It also correlates with the Dst index ( r≈ 0.82 − 0.84 ), but the altitude drop precedes the Dst minimum by ∼ 3 h, attributing this to a common solar-wind driver rather than ring-current heating. XRISM ( 31∘ , ∼ 560 km) shows the storm-induced density enhancement reached low latitudes in May 2024 but not in October 2024, consistent with a shorter electrojet duration despite comparable peak intensity. Polar Joule heating, indexed by PC, is thus the dominant storm-time drag driver, providing a natural forecasting window of up to ∼ 3 h.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{tanaka2026hourscale,
title = {{Hour-scale response of low-Earth-orbit satellite altitude to extreme geomagnetic storms revealed by the NinjaSat CubeSat during the 2024 solar maximum}},
author = {Hayato Tanaka and Takao Nakagawa and Satoshi Nozawa and Toru Tamagawa and Teruaki Enoto and Takao Kitaguchi and Wataru Iwakiri and Tatehiro Mihara and Tomoshi Takeda and Naoyuki Ota and Amira Aoyama and Satoko Iwata and Takuya Takahashi and Kaede Yamasaki},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-72547-2},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-72547-2},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Hour-scale response of low-Earth-orbit satellite altitude to extreme geomagnetic storms revealed by the NinjaSat CubeSat during the 2024 solar maximum
AU - Hayato Tanaka
AU - Takao Nakagawa
AU - Satoshi Nozawa
AU - Toru Tamagawa
AU - Teruaki Enoto
AU - Takao Kitaguchi
AU - Wataru Iwakiri
AU - Tatehiro Mihara
AU - Tomoshi Takeda
AU - Naoyuki Ota
AU - Amira Aoyama
AU - Satoko Iwata
AU - Takuya Takahashi
AU - Kaede Yamasaki
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/02
JO - Scientific Reports
DO - 10.1038/s41598-026-72547-2
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-72547-2
AB - Extreme geomagnetic storms accelerate low-Earth-orbit satellite decay by inflating the thermosphere, yet the hour-scale pathway from solar-wind energy to atmospheric heating is poorly understood. Using the GNSS receiver of the NinjaSat CubeSat ( ∼ 500 km, 97^∘ sun-synchronous), we tracked orbital altitude through solar-maximum 2024 and cross-correlated the storm-time altitude-change rate with geomagnetic indices during the two largest storms of the year. The EUV-corrected residual correlates with the polar-cap (PC) index at r≳ 0.8 , PC leading or coincident with the response by up to ∼ 3 h, as do the auroral electrojet indices AE and AL. It also correlates with the Dst index ( r≈ 0.82 − 0.84 ), but the altitude drop precedes the Dst minimum by ∼ 3 h, attributing this to a common solar-wind driver rather than ring-current heating. XRISM ( 31^∘ , ∼ 560 km) shows the storm-induced density enhancement reached low latitudes in May 2024 but not in October 2024, consistent with a shorter electrojet duration despite comparable peak intensity. Polar Joule heating, indexed by PC, is thus the dominant storm-time drag driver, providing a natural forecasting window of up to ∼ 3 h.
SN - 2045-2322
ER -