Dynamic probabilistic decision networks
Abstract
A new type of decision networks is suggested and its operation is analyzed. The network nodes are represented by intelligent agents who can denote either some biological beings, like humans, or neurons of the brain, or the nodes of artificial intelligence. The specifics of the network are in the following: It is probabilistic in the sense that the choice, accomplished by each agent, is characterized by the related probability. It is dynamic, with the probabilities varying in time due to the exchange of information between the agents. It is affective, because the agents choose between alternatives by taking account of utility as well as of biases and emotions. In general, it is heterogeneous, being composed of the groups of agents with different properties, for instance having long-term memory and short-term memory. The network dynamics, caused by the information exchange, results in decision error decrease. The network operation is illustrated by the example starting with the Allais paradox, its resolution, and the decision error diminution in the process of decision dynamics with information exchange. Resorting to machine-learning techniques it is possible to regulate the behavior of the network agents forcing them to choose particular alternatives.
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BibTeX
@misc{yukalov2026dynamic,
title = {{Dynamic probabilistic decision networks}},
author = {V. I. Yukalov and E. P. Yukalova},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.03632},
eprint = {2609.03632},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03632},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Dynamic probabilistic decision networks
AU - V. I. Yukalov
AU - E. P. Yukalova
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/11
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.03632
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.03632
AB - A new type of decision networks is suggested and its operation is analyzed. The network nodes are represented by intelligent agents who can denote either some biological beings, like humans, or neurons of the brain, or the nodes of artificial intelligence. The specifics of the network are in the following: It is probabilistic in the sense that the choice, accomplished by each agent, is characterized by the related probability. It is dynamic, with the probabilities varying in time due to the exchange of information between the agents. It is affective, because the agents choose between alternatives by taking account of utility as well as of biases and emotions. In general, it is heterogeneous, being composed of the groups of agents with different properties, for instance having long-term memory and short-term memory. The network dynamics, caused by the information exchange, results in decision error decrease. The network operation is illustrated by the example starting with the Allais paradox, its resolution, and the decision error diminution in the process of decision dynamics with information exchange. Resorting to machine-learning techniques it is possible to regulate the behavior of the network agents forcing them to choose particular alternatives.
ER -