Long-Term Spatiotemporal Assessment of Heat Stress Risk in Major Dairy-Producing Regions of Minas Gerais Using ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data
Abstract
Heat stress poses a challenge to dairy production under increasing climate variability, highlighting the need for long-term assessments of thermal risk. This study assessed heat stress risk across major dairy-producing regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using ERA5-Land reanalysis data and the Temperature–Humidity Index (THI). Daily air temperature and dew point temperature data from 2004 to 2024 were used to calculate THI. ERA5-Land-derived THI was validated against observations from 63 INMET automatic weather stations using the modified Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE′). At the regional scale, heat stress risk was characterized based on the frequency, spatial distribution, seasonality, and temporal trends of THI-defined climatic heat-stress categories. Temporal trends were assessed using Pearson’s correlation between year and annual frequency for each THI category, with significance evaluated using a t-test at the 5% significance level. KGE′ values were predominantly between 0.80 and 0.90, indicating high agreement between observed and ERA5-Land-derived data. Heat stress conditions (THI ≥ 68) accounted for 69.72% of the observations, with the highest seasonal frequencies occurring in summer (24.23%) and spring (22.25%). Temporal analysis indicated an average increase of 2.23 days year−1 in heat-stress conditions, mainly due to moderate heat stress, while thermoneutral days showed predominantly decreasing trends. These findings demonstrate that integrating climate reanalysis data with bioclimatic indicators provides a robust framework for assessing heat stress risk and supporting regional planning of livestock facilities, cooling strategies, and climate change adaptation.
Related
- Convergent Mitochondrial and Oxidative Stress Signatures in Spaceflight and Tauopathy: A Comparative Multi-Omics Reanalysis in Drosophila melanogaster
- Ascorbic Acid (Vitamin C) Attenuates Dichlorvos-Induced Neurobehavioral and Oxido-Inflammatory Stress in Discrete Brain Regions
- Dissecting genomic regions and candidate genes for root traits at the seedling stage under cold stress in rice
- Spatiotemporal assessment of urban environmental livability in Dhaka (2004–2024)
- GEDI canopy cover assessment using airborne LiDAR across eco-climate regions of the United States
BibTeX
@article{mariano2026longterm,
title = {{Long-Term Spatiotemporal Assessment of Heat Stress Risk in Major Dairy-Producing Regions of Minas Gerais Using ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data}},
author = {Túlio Souza Mariano and Carlos Eduardo Alves Oliveira and Ilda de Fátima Ferreira Tinôco and João Vitor Ferreira Da Silva and Fernanda Campos De Sousa and Luciano Barreto-Mendes and Matteo Barbari},
journal = {AgriEngineering},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.3390/agriengineering8090394},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05804907v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Long-Term Spatiotemporal Assessment of Heat Stress Risk in Major Dairy-Producing Regions of Minas Gerais Using ERA5-Land Reanalysis Data
AU - Túlio Souza Mariano
AU - Carlos Eduardo Alves Oliveira
AU - Ilda de Fátima Ferreira Tinôco
AU - João Vitor Ferreira Da Silva
AU - Fernanda Campos De Sousa
AU - Luciano Barreto-Mendes
AU - Matteo Barbari
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/19
JO - AgriEngineering
DO - 10.3390/agriengineering8090394
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05804907v1
AB - Heat stress poses a challenge to dairy production under increasing climate variability, highlighting the need for long-term assessments of thermal risk. This study assessed heat stress risk across major dairy-producing regions of Minas Gerais, Brazil, using ERA5-Land reanalysis data and the Temperature–Humidity Index (THI). Daily air temperature and dew point temperature data from 2004 to 2024 were used to calculate THI. ERA5-Land-derived THI was validated against observations from 63 INMET automatic weather stations using the modified Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE′). At the regional scale, heat stress risk was characterized based on the frequency, spatial distribution, seasonality, and temporal trends of THI-defined climatic heat-stress categories. Temporal trends were assessed using Pearson’s correlation between year and annual frequency for each THI category, with significance evaluated using a t-test at the 5% significance level. KGE′ values were predominantly between 0.80 and 0.90, indicating high agreement between observed and ERA5-Land-derived data. Heat stress conditions (THI ≥ 68) accounted for 69.72% of the observations, with the highest seasonal frequencies occurring in summer (24.23%) and spring (22.25%). Temporal analysis indicated an average increase of 2.23 days year−1 in heat-stress conditions, mainly due to moderate heat stress, while thermoneutral days showed predominantly decreasing trends. These findings demonstrate that integrating climate reanalysis data with bioclimatic indicators provides a robust framework for assessing heat stress risk and supporting regional planning of livestock facilities, cooling strategies, and climate change adaptation.
SN - 2624-7402
ER -