Antarctic marine-based ice destabilized when warming outpaces solid-Earth feedbacks.
- 1Department of Earth Physics and Astrophysics, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain.
- 2Geosciences Institute, CSIC-UCM, Madrid, Spain.
- 3Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany.
Abstract
The Antarctic Ice Sheet is expected to be the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. Previous equilibrium ice-sheet simulations have suggested that this is due to crossing a bifurcation point associated with marine ice-sheet instability. Here we investigate whether sectors vulnerable to this instability can undergo rate-induced tipping, whereby rapid forcing and slow bedrock uplift trigger self-sustained retreat before the bifurcation point is reached. We test this with an ice-sheet model coupled to a glacial isostatic adjustment model, sampling the uncertainty in mantle viscosity. We find that slow bedrock adjustment weakens the stabilizing effect of glacial isostatic adjustment, allowing grounding lines to reach retrograde bed slopes more readily and triggering self-sustained retreat below the bifurcation threshold. Although the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to a bifurcation, it is unlikely to experience rate-induced tipping because of the low mantle viscosity beneath the region. In contrast, the Recovery and Aurora subglacial basins are likely to undergo such a transition even under warming rates lower than those observed today. Depending on mantle viscosity, this mechanism can reduce the critical global mean temperature anomaly by up to 0.5 K, with important implications for the long-term evolution of the Earth system.
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BibTeX
@article{swierczekjereczek2026antarctic,
title = {{Antarctic marine-based ice destabilized when warming outpaces solid-Earth feedbacks.}},
author = {Jan Swierczek-Jereczek and Javier Blasco and Alexander Robinson and Jorge Alvarez-Solas and Marisa Montoya},
journal = {Nature geoscience},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s41561-026-02117-8},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42996308},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Antarctic marine-based ice destabilized when warming outpaces solid-Earth feedbacks.
AU - Jan Swierczek-Jereczek
AU - Javier Blasco
AU - Alexander Robinson
AU - Jorge Alvarez-Solas
AU - Marisa Montoya
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/20
JO - Nature geoscience
DO - 10.1038/s41561-026-02117-8
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42996308
AB - The Antarctic Ice Sheet is expected to be the largest contributor to sea-level rise over the coming centuries. Previous equilibrium ice-sheet simulations have suggested that this is due to crossing a bifurcation point associated with marine ice-sheet instability. Here we investigate whether sectors vulnerable to this instability can undergo rate-induced tipping, whereby rapid forcing and slow bedrock uplift trigger self-sustained retreat before the bifurcation point is reached. We test this with an ice-sheet model coupled to a glacial isostatic adjustment model, sampling the uncertainty in mantle viscosity. We find that slow bedrock adjustment weakens the stabilizing effect of glacial isostatic adjustment, allowing grounding lines to reach retrograde bed slopes more readily and triggering self-sustained retreat below the bifurcation threshold. Although the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is subject to a bifurcation, it is unlikely to experience rate-induced tipping because of the low mantle viscosity beneath the region. In contrast, the Recovery and Aurora subglacial basins are likely to undergo such a transition even under warming rates lower than those observed today. Depending on mantle viscosity, this mechanism can reduce the critical global mean temperature anomaly by up to 0.5 K, with important implications for the long-term evolution of the Earth system.
SN - 1752-0894
SN - 1752-0908
ER -