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Peer-reviewedCC BYNature geoscience

Contrasting aerosol-cloud feedbacks across a warming Arctic.

  • Samuel De Xun Chua1
  • Herbert G Hartl1
  • Matthew Boyer1
  • Jakob Boyd Pernov2,3,4
  • Radovan Krejci5,6
  • Peter Tunved5,6
  • Paul Zieger5,6
  • Julia Kojoj5,6
  • Andreas Massling2
  • Henrik Skov2
  • Lynn M Russell7
  • Sourita Saha7
13 more authors
  • Tak Chan8
  • Eija Asmi9
  • Ville Vakkari9,10
  • John Backman9
  • Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen9
  • Christina J Williamson1,9
  • Ilona Jaakkola1
  • Mikko Sipilä1
  • Nina Sarnela1
  • Veli-Matti Kerminen1
  • Martha Arbayani Zaidan1,11
  • Tuukka Petäjä1
  • Katrianne Lehtipalo1,9
11 affiliations
  1. 1Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
  2. 2Department of Environmental Science, iClimate, Arctic Research Cluster, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.
  3. 3Extreme Environments Research Laboratory, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Sion, Switzerland.
  4. 4School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Queensland Australia.
  5. 5Department of Environmental Science, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
  6. 6Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden.
  7. 7Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA USA.
  8. 8Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario Canada.
  9. 9Atmospheric Composition Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
  10. 10Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group, Chemical Resource Beneficiation, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa.
  11. 11Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
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Abstract

In the rapidly warming Arctic, the feedback between aerosols and clouds is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. One source of this uncertainty is the role of new particle formation, which produces aerosol particles that can subsequently grow into cloud condensation nuclei, thereby influencing Arctic cloud formation. Here harmonized field aerosol observations across the Arctic spanning 2003-2024, alongside satellite-derived data, were analysed to quantify trends in new particle formation and estimate their climatic implications across the Arctic region. Three distinct aerosol regimes, with contrasting contributions of new particle formation to cloud condensation nuclei populations, were identified: the High Arctic, the Maritime Arctic and the Continental Arctic. In these three regimes, temperature-sensitivity estimates based on the intermediate future warming scenario suggest that by 2090-2100, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations associated with new particle formation activity could increase by 3-16% in the High Arctic but decline by 15-31% in the Maritime Arctic. These contrasting estimates indicate that aerosol-cloud feedbacks will evolve differently across the mosaic of Arctic aerosol regimes.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{chua2026contrasting,
  title = {{Contrasting aerosol-cloud feedbacks across a warming Arctic.}},
  author = {Samuel De Xun Chua and Herbert G Hartl and Matthew Boyer and Jakob Boyd Pernov and Radovan Krejci and Peter Tunved and Paul Zieger and Julia Kojoj and Andreas Massling and Henrik Skov and Lynn M Russell and Sourita Saha and Tak Chan and Eija Asmi and Ville Vakkari and John Backman and Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen and Christina J Williamson and Ilona Jaakkola and Mikko Sipilä and Nina Sarnela and Veli-Matti Kerminen and Martha Arbayani Zaidan and Tuukka Petäjä and Katrianne Lehtipalo},
  journal = {Nature geoscience},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1038/s41561-026-02114-x},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42996659},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Contrasting aerosol-cloud feedbacks across a warming Arctic.
AU  - Samuel De Xun Chua
AU  - Herbert G Hartl
AU  - Matthew Boyer
AU  - Jakob Boyd Pernov
AU  - Radovan Krejci
AU  - Peter Tunved
AU  - Paul Zieger
AU  - Julia Kojoj
AU  - Andreas Massling
AU  - Henrik Skov
AU  - Lynn M Russell
AU  - Sourita Saha
AU  - Tak Chan
AU  - Eija Asmi
AU  - Ville Vakkari
AU  - John Backman
AU  - Antti-Pekka Hyvärinen
AU  - Christina J Williamson
AU  - Ilona Jaakkola
AU  - Mikko Sipilä
AU  - Nina Sarnela
AU  - Veli-Matti Kerminen
AU  - Martha Arbayani Zaidan
AU  - Tuukka Petäjä
AU  - Katrianne Lehtipalo
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/28
JO  - Nature geoscience
DO  - 10.1038/s41561-026-02114-x
UR  - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42996659
AB  - In the rapidly warming Arctic, the feedback between aerosols and clouds is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future climate. One source of this uncertainty is the role of new particle formation, which produces aerosol particles that can subsequently grow into cloud condensation nuclei, thereby influencing Arctic cloud formation. Here harmonized field aerosol observations across the Arctic spanning 2003-2024, alongside satellite-derived data, were analysed to quantify trends in new particle formation and estimate their climatic implications across the Arctic region. Three distinct aerosol regimes, with contrasting contributions of new particle formation to cloud condensation nuclei populations, were identified: the High Arctic, the Maritime Arctic and the Continental Arctic. In these three regimes, temperature-sensitivity estimates based on the intermediate future warming scenario suggest that by 2090-2100, cloud condensation nuclei concentrations associated with new particle formation activity could increase by 3-16% in the High Arctic but decline by 15-31% in the Maritime Arctic. These contrasting estimates indicate that aerosol-cloud feedbacks will evolve differently across the mosaic of Arctic aerosol regimes.
SN  - 1752-0894
SN  - 1752-0908
ER  -