Global Geospatial Trends in Breast Cancer and Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter Among Older Women: Uncovering Shared Epidemiological Patterns and Etiological Links
7 affiliations
- 1Breast Center Peking University People's Hospital, Peking University Beijing China
- 2Department of Pharmacy Zhongda Hospital, Southeast University Nanjing Jiangsu China
- 3Department of Cardiology Fuwai Shenzhen Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences Shenzhen Guangdong China
- 4Division of Cardiology, State Key Laboratory for Systems Medicine for Cancer Shanghai Cancer Institute, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai China
- 5Department of General Surgery Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University Hangzhou Zhejiang China
- 6Department of Breast Surgery Zhejiang University School of Medicine Second Affiliated Hospital Hangzhou Zhejiang China
- 7Department of Cardiac Surgery Peking University People's Hospital, Peking University Beijing China
Abstract
Background: Breast cancer (BC) and atrial fibrillation (AF) represent increasing global health burdens with shared risk factors. However, their coincidence burden and global distribution among older women (≥55 years) remain unclear.
Methods: This study integrated data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database spanning 204 countries and territories, covering incidence rates of BC and AF and exposure rates of 58 risk factors. Using a 4‐quartile classification algorithm, we divided the globe into 3 regions (consistent, BC‐dominant, and AF‐dominant area). Risk factors were screened by using machine learning models (random forest, spatial statistics, and SHAP interpretability framework). Population‐attributable fraction and a composite risk index model were generated to evaluate disease burdens and spatial risk localization of BC and AF.
Results: The consistent area (80 countries, 39.60%) exhibited overlapping BC‐AF incidence, while BC‐dominant (65 countries, 32.18%) and AF‐dominant (57 countries, 28.22%) regions highlighted geographic disparities. After screening of machine learning models, 2 shared factors (smoking and alcohol use) and 2 BC‐specific factors (high body mass index and low physical activity) were included in the calculation of population‐attributable fraction, potentially reducing global BC and AF incidence by 29.05% and 11.75% after shifting these factors to theoretical minimum exposure levels. For most factors, high‐risk zones clustered in North and South America, Europe, and Oceania mainly correlate with dietary and lifestyle patterns.
Conclusions: The spatial coincidence of BC and AF present a significant global health challenge. Addressing both shared and region‐specific risk factors can substantially reduce the dual burden of these diseases.
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BibTeX
@article{zhang2026global,
title = {{Global Geospatial Trends in Breast Cancer and Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter Among Older Women: Uncovering Shared Epidemiological Patterns and Etiological Links}},
author = {Yiyin Zhang and Jing Xie and Hailu Wang and Jianhe Yang and Haiyang Xie and Yifan Chen and Qijiang Mao and Yirun Li and Ke Li and Yiting Chen and Yi Shi and Zeye Liu and Shu Wang},
journal = {Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1161/jaha.125.047762},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1161/jaha.125.047762},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Global Geospatial Trends in Breast Cancer and Atrial Fibrillation/Flutter Among Older Women: Uncovering Shared Epidemiological Patterns and Etiological Links
AU - Yiyin Zhang
AU - Jing Xie
AU - Hailu Wang
AU - Jianhe Yang
AU - Haiyang Xie
AU - Yifan Chen
AU - Qijiang Mao
AU - Yirun Li
AU - Ke Li
AU - Yiting Chen
AU - Yi Shi
AU - Zeye Liu
AU - Shu Wang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/08
JO - Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease
DO - 10.1161/jaha.125.047762
UR - https://doi.org/10.1161/jaha.125.047762
AB - Background: Breast cancer (BC) and atrial fibrillation (AF) represent increasing global health burdens with shared risk factors. However, their coincidence burden and global distribution among older women (≥55 years) remain unclear. Methods: This study integrated data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database spanning 204 countries and territories, covering incidence rates of BC and AF and exposure rates of 58 risk factors. Using a 4‐quartile classification algorithm, we divided the globe into 3 regions (consistent, BC‐dominant, and AF‐dominant area). Risk factors were screened by using machine learning models (random forest, spatial statistics, and SHAP interpretability framework). Population‐attributable fraction and a composite risk index model were generated to evaluate disease burdens and spatial risk localization of BC and AF. Results: The consistent area (80 countries, 39.60%) exhibited overlapping BC‐AF incidence, while BC‐dominant (65 countries, 32.18%) and AF‐dominant (57 countries, 28.22%) regions highlighted geographic disparities. After screening of machine learning models, 2 shared factors (smoking and alcohol use) and 2 BC‐specific factors (high body mass index and low physical activity) were included in the calculation of population‐attributable fraction, potentially reducing global BC and AF incidence by 29.05% and 11.75% after shifting these factors to theoretical minimum exposure levels. For most factors, high‐risk zones clustered in North and South America, Europe, and Oceania mainly correlate with dietary and lifestyle patterns. Conclusions: The spatial coincidence of BC and AF present a significant global health challenge. Addressing both shared and region‐specific risk factors can substantially reduce the dual burden of these diseases.
SN - 2047-9980
ER -