Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation

@article{streletskiy2026longterm,
  title = {{Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation}},
  author = {Dmitry A Streletskiy and Kelsey E Nyland and Nikolay I Shiklomanov and Emma Haggerty and Michael L Mann and Vasily Tolmanov and Frederick E Nelson and Anna E Klene and Felix Pretis and Lin Chen and Hanne Christiansen and Miguel Angel de Pablo and Dmitry Fyodorov-Davydov and Mauro Guglielmin and Filip Hrbáček and Ketil Isaksen and Margareta Johansson and Marina Leibman and Dario Trombotto Liaudat and Alexey Maslakov and Mikhail Mastepanov and Jeannette Noetzli and Vladimir E Romanovsky and Anarmaa Sharkhuu and Sharon L Smith and Andrey Abramov and Elena Babkina and Julia Boike and Christopher R Burn and Nicoletta Cannone and Wei Cao and Sergey Davydov and Anna Davydova and Reynald Delaloe and Thomas Douglas and Caroline Duchesne and Valery Grebenets and Christian Hauck and Christin Hilbich and Martin Hölzle and Robert K Kaufmann and Alexander L Kholodov and Artem V Khomutov and Michaela Kňažkova and Pavel Konstantinov and Lev Kuziakin and Christophe Lambiel and Guoyu Li and Alexey Lupachev and Florence Magnin and Natsagdorj Sharkhuu and Pavel Orekhov and Cecile Pellet and Marcia Phillips and Paolo Pogliotti and Stefano Ponti and Daniel Alexander Rudd and Oleg Tregubov and Frank Urban and Gonçalo Vieira},
  journal = {Communications Earth \& Environment},
  year = {2026},
  month = aug,
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1},
  url = {https://hal.science/hal-05804692v1},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation
AU  - Dmitry A Streletskiy
AU  - Kelsey E Nyland
AU  - Nikolay I Shiklomanov
AU  - Emma Haggerty
AU  - Michael L Mann
AU  - Vasily Tolmanov
AU  - Frederick E Nelson
AU  - Anna E Klene
AU  - Felix Pretis
AU  - Lin Chen
AU  - Hanne Christiansen
AU  - Miguel Angel de Pablo
AU  - Dmitry Fyodorov-Davydov
AU  - Mauro Guglielmin
AU  - Filip Hrbáček
AU  - Ketil Isaksen
AU  - Margareta Johansson
AU  - Marina Leibman
AU  - Dario Trombotto Liaudat
AU  - Alexey Maslakov
AU  - Mikhail Mastepanov
AU  - Jeannette Noetzli
AU  - Vladimir E Romanovsky
AU  - Anarmaa Sharkhuu
AU  - Sharon L Smith
AU  - Andrey Abramov
AU  - Elena Babkina
AU  - Julia Boike
AU  - Christopher R Burn
AU  - Nicoletta Cannone
AU  - Wei Cao
AU  - Sergey Davydov
AU  - Anna Davydova
AU  - Reynald Delaloe
AU  - Thomas Douglas
AU  - Caroline Duchesne
AU  - Valery Grebenets
AU  - Christian Hauck
AU  - Christin Hilbich
AU  - Martin Hölzle
AU  - Robert K Kaufmann
AU  - Alexander L Kholodov
AU  - Artem V Khomutov
AU  - Michaela Kňažkova
AU  - Pavel Konstantinov
AU  - Lev Kuziakin
AU  - Christophe Lambiel
AU  - Guoyu Li
AU  - Alexey Lupachev
AU  - Florence Magnin
AU  - Natsagdorj Sharkhuu
AU  - Pavel Orekhov
AU  - Cecile Pellet
AU  - Marcia Phillips
AU  - Paolo Pogliotti
AU  - Stefano Ponti
AU  - Daniel Alexander Rudd
AU  - Oleg Tregubov
AU  - Frank Urban
AU  - Gonçalo Vieira
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/08/26
JO  - Communications Earth & Environment
DO  - 10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1
UR  - https://hal.science/hal-05804692v1
AB  - Active layer increase may contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, ecosystem change, and increased hazards. Here, we show the results of field measurements of active-layer thickness from 156 monitoring sites in Arctic, Antarctic and mountain permafrost regions. Active layer thickness increased significantly at 55% and 38% of sites in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, at more than 90% European mountain and high elevation Asian sites, and at sites in South America, demonstrating worldwide permafrost degradation during the first quarter of this century (2000-2024). The largest changes were observed in mountain regions where active layer doubled at several sites. The smallest changes were observed at sites with thick surficial organic horizons and high ground ice content. In continuous permafrost, sites generally exhibited smaller increases compared to sites in discontinuous permafrost. Regression analysis indicates Arctic active layer changes are attributable to increasing thawing degree-days, followed by increases in total rainfall. Other permafrost regions require more sites and longer time-series to draw conclusions regarding active layer change attribution.  The Arctic, high mountains, and Antarctic are typically underlain by permafrost, which is defined as ground material remaining at or below 0 °C for two years or longer 1 . Contemporary permafrost is estimated to underlie nearly 15% of the exposed northern land surface and nearly 100% of Antarctic ice-free areas 2,3 . Cold regions are warming faster than the global average as the loss of ice and snow exposes darker, more absorptive surfaces 4-6 . Regional studies have demonstrated permafrost degradation in the Eurasian and North American Arctic, and mountain permafrost regions of Eurasia 7-11 . Modeling studies project extensive permafrost degradation and a substantial reduction in permafrost extent by the end of the 21st century 12-14 . Near-surface permafrost in fine-grained Arctic deposits and organic-rich soils stores large quantities of organic carbon that, if thawed, may be mobilized and released through biogeochemical processes, thereby amplifying climate warming 15-17 . However, processes including ground-ice melt, soil consolidation, vegetation and snow-cover dynamics contribute to predictive uncertainty 18,19 . These limitations contribute to discrepancies between modeled projections and observed rates of permafrost degradation 8,20 . Consequently, it is critical to systematically quantify
SN  - 2662-4435
ER  -