Heat-related deaths in English social care: can CQC ratings identify homes needing heat adaptation?
Abstract
Background: The health impacts of rising temperatures in care home settings are of growing concern. We seek to characterise the risk of heat-related mortality in nursing and residential care home settings in England and to assess potential modification of heat effects by Care Quality Commission (CQC) ratings.
Methods: Heat episode analysis was used to assess excess mortality during the heatwave of 16-20th July 2022. Daily time-series regression analysis employing Distributed Lag Non-linear Models was used to assess short-term associations between daily mean temperature and daily number of deaths in care home residents during 2022-2024, adjusting for season and day-of-week effects.
Results: Nursing home deaths increased by 34.1% (95% CI 21.1, 48.2) and residential care home deaths by 13.0% (0.1, 27.0) during the July 2022 heatwave. During 2022-2024, the relative risk of death on a day of 25 °C compared to a day of 16 °C was 2.09 (95% CI 1.68, 2.60) among nursing home residents and 1.56 (1.24, 1.96) in residential care homes. There was a gradient of increasing heat-related mortality risk associated with poorer CQC rating, although almost all CQC categories were associated with raised risks. Heat-related mortality risk in care homes was greatest in the West Midlands and London regions.
Conclusions: Our findings indicate a growing need for heat stress to be recognised as an important risk factor for care home residents. Urgent and wide-scale improvements in heat adaptation strategies are needed in care homes across England to help improve the resilience of the social care system to climate change.
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BibTeX
@article{hajat2026heatrelated,
title = {{Heat-related deaths in English social care: can CQC ratings identify homes needing heat adaptation?}},
author = {S Hajat and S Hussein and K Li and R S Kovats and M Davies and A Mavrogianni and R Gupta},
journal = {The European Journal of Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.664},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.664},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Heat-related deaths in English social care: can CQC ratings identify homes needing heat adaptation?
AU - S Hajat
AU - S Hussein
AU - K Li
AU - R S Kovats
AU - M Davies
AU - A Mavrogianni
AU - R Gupta
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - The European Journal of Public Health
DO - 10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.664
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.664
AB - Background: The health impacts of rising temperatures in care home settings are of growing concern. We seek to characterise the risk of heat-related mortality in nursing and residential care home settings in England and to assess potential modification of heat effects by Care Quality Commission (CQC) ratings. Methods: Heat episode analysis was used to assess excess mortality during the heatwave of 16-20th July 2022. Daily time-series regression analysis employing Distributed Lag Non-linear Models was used to assess short-term associations between daily mean temperature and daily number of deaths in care home residents during 2022-2024, adjusting for season and day-of-week effects. Results: Nursing home deaths increased by 34.1% (95% CI 21.1, 48.2) and residential care home deaths by 13.0% (0.1, 27.0) during the July 2022 heatwave. During 2022-2024, the relative risk of death on a day of 25 °C compared to a day of 16 °C was 2.09 (95% CI 1.68, 2.60) among nursing home residents and 1.56 (1.24, 1.96) in residential care homes. There was a gradient of increasing heat-related mortality risk associated with poorer CQC rating, although almost all CQC categories were associated with raised risks. Heat-related mortality risk in care homes was greatest in the West Midlands and London regions. Conclusions: Our findings indicate a growing need for heat stress to be recognised as an important risk factor for care home residents. Urgent and wide-scale improvements in heat adaptation strategies are needed in care homes across England to help improve the resilience of the social care system to climate change.
SN - 1101-1262
SN - 1464-360X
ER -