On the Effect of Large Scale Structures and Turbulence on Solar Eruptive Events: The Cross-Scale Challenge for Space Weather
Abstract
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are among the most powerful drivers of space weather, yet their prediction remains elusive. A fundamental obstacle is the problem's multiscale nature: large-scale magnetohydrodynamic models do not resolve the turbulent fluctuations that govern particle transport and magnetic connectivity. We present a new model that combines a MICroscopic diffusion approach of turbulence with MACroscopic EUHFORIA simulations (MICMAC) to address the cross-scale challenge of space weather. By incorporating turbulence properties into such small-scale Monte Carlo simulations, we describe an extreme CME event, tracing both magnetic field lines and 100 MeV protons from the CME-driven shock to 1 AU. We find that turbulence dramatically broadens and distorts the magnetic connection between the CME nose and Earth, producing footpoint distributions that are highly non-Gaussian, anisotropic, and patchy. MICMAC suggests that the distribution's enstrophy (non-Gaussianity) grows as the CME approaches Earth, signaling anomalous diffusive behavior. A simple shear-layer toy model reproduces the observed in-plane anisotropy, suggesting that local current sheet geometry imprints a persistent memory on the turbulent field. Our results demonstrate that cross-scale coupling between the CME's large-scale structure and ambient turbulence must be accounted for in space weather models. We discuss implications for SEP forecasting and interpreting multi-spacecraft observations.
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BibTeX
@misc{ippolito2026effect,
title = {{On the Effect of Large Scale Structures and Turbulence on Solar Eruptive Events: The Cross-Scale Challenge for Space Weather}},
author = {Alessandro Ippolito and Giuseppe Prete and Nicolas Wijsen and Gaetano Zimbardo and Anwesha Maharana and Stefaan Poedts and Sergio Servidio},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.29334},
eprint = {2608.29334},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29334},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - On the Effect of Large Scale Structures and Turbulence on Solar Eruptive Events: The Cross-Scale Challenge for Space Weather
AU - Alessandro Ippolito
AU - Giuseppe Prete
AU - Nicolas Wijsen
AU - Gaetano Zimbardo
AU - Anwesha Maharana
AU - Stefaan Poedts
AU - Sergio Servidio
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/29
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.29334
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.29334
AB - Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are among the most powerful drivers of space weather, yet their prediction remains elusive. A fundamental obstacle is the problem's multiscale nature: large-scale magnetohydrodynamic models do not resolve the turbulent fluctuations that govern particle transport and magnetic connectivity. We present a new model that combines a MICroscopic diffusion approach of turbulence with MACroscopic EUHFORIA simulations (MICMAC) to address the cross-scale challenge of space weather. By incorporating turbulence properties into such small-scale Monte Carlo simulations, we describe an extreme CME event, tracing both magnetic field lines and 100 MeV protons from the CME-driven shock to 1 AU. We find that turbulence dramatically broadens and distorts the magnetic connection between the CME nose and Earth, producing footpoint distributions that are highly non-Gaussian, anisotropic, and patchy. MICMAC suggests that the distribution's enstrophy (non-Gaussianity) grows as the CME approaches Earth, signaling anomalous diffusive behavior. A simple shear-layer toy model reproduces the observed in-plane anisotropy, suggesting that local current sheet geometry imprints a persistent memory on the turbulent field. Our results demonstrate that cross-scale coupling between the CME's large-scale structure and ambient turbulence must be accounted for in space weather models. We discuss implications for SEP forecasting and interpreting multi-spacecraft observations.
ER -