Predicting 12- and 24-month documented CKD progression from routine laboratory data: a single-center temporal evaluation.
6 affiliations
- 1Department of Laboratory Medicine, Shanghai Fengxian District Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Shanghai, China.
- 2Department of Laboratory and Pathology, 72nd Group Army Hospital, Huzhou, China.
- 3Department of Laboratory Medicine, Wangjiang Subdistrict Community Healthcare Center, Shangcheng District, Hangzhou, China.
- 4Department of Anesthesiology, 72nd Group Army Hospital, Huzhou Normal University, Huzhou, China.
- 5Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Second People's Hospital of Huai'an, the Affiliated Huai'an Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University, Huai'an, China.
- 6Department of General Surgery, 72nd Group Army Hospital, Huzhou Normal University, Huzhou, China.
Abstract
Background
Routine laboratory data may support CKD follow-up. We evaluated 12- and 24-month documented progression prediction and exploratory review outputs.Methods
This retrospective single-center study used 2012-2025 hospital records. CKD required objective persistence for ≥90 days. Development used 2012-2021 indices; temporal evaluation used unseen patients indexed in 2022-2023. Among horizon-evaluable indices, the endpoint was documented sustained ≥40% estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline or kidney failure. Development selected 12-month and conditional second-year models combined for non-decreasing cumulative risk. Laboratory and documentation outputs were assessed separately.Results
Temporal evaluation of horizon-evaluable patients included 143 patients (10 event patients; 21/364 positive indices) at 12 months and 87 patients (22 event patients; 50/247 positive indices) at 24 months. Area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) was 0.510 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.217-0.789) and 0.677 (0.459-0.853), respectively. Incremental 12-month AUPRC over age, sex and current eGFR was uncertain (difference -0.009, 95% CI -0.171 to 0.123). At 24 months, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was higher than the core comparator (difference 0.057, 95% CI 0.007-0.121); clinical utility was not evaluated. Calibration slopes were 0.996 (0.689-1.640) and 1.028 (0.676-1.661); wide CIs precluded reliable individual-risk calibration. Documentation ranking did not improve on prior-mention strategies.Conclusions
This study is proof of concept. Small event counts, follow-up selection and uncertain incremental value limit interpretation. Multisite validation is required before implementation.
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BibTeX
@article{jin2026predicting,
title = {{Predicting 12- and 24-month documented CKD progression from routine laboratory data: a single-center temporal evaluation.}},
author = {Mudan Jin and Jie Jing and Di Lin and Jing Li and Lang Zhang and Pinhao Guo and Zheng Wang and Xingzhu Wen},
journal = {Renal failure},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1080/0886022x.2026.2753249},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42951370},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Predicting 12- and 24-month documented CKD progression from routine laboratory data: a single-center temporal evaluation.
AU - Mudan Jin
AU - Jie Jing
AU - Di Lin
AU - Jing Li
AU - Lang Zhang
AU - Pinhao Guo
AU - Zheng Wang
AU - Xingzhu Wen
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/28
JO - Renal failure
DO - 10.1080/0886022x.2026.2753249
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42951370
AB - Background Routine laboratory data may support CKD follow-up. We evaluated 12- and 24-month documented progression prediction and exploratory review outputs.Methods This retrospective single-center study used 2012-2025 hospital records. CKD required objective persistence for ≥90 days. Development used 2012-2021 indices; temporal evaluation used unseen patients indexed in 2022-2023. Among horizon-evaluable indices, the endpoint was documented sustained ≥40% estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline or kidney failure. Development selected 12-month and conditional second-year models combined for non-decreasing cumulative risk. Laboratory and documentation outputs were assessed separately.Results Temporal evaluation of horizon-evaluable patients included 143 patients (10 event patients; 21/364 positive indices) at 12 months and 87 patients (22 event patients; 50/247 positive indices) at 24 months. Area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) was 0.510 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.217-0.789) and 0.677 (0.459-0.853), respectively. Incremental 12-month AUPRC over age, sex and current eGFR was uncertain (difference -0.009, 95% CI -0.171 to 0.123). At 24 months, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was higher than the core comparator (difference 0.057, 95% CI 0.007-0.121); clinical utility was not evaluated. Calibration slopes were 0.996 (0.689-1.640) and 1.028 (0.676-1.661); wide CIs precluded reliable individual-risk calibration. Documentation ranking did not improve on prior-mention strategies.Conclusions This study is proof of concept. Small event counts, follow-up selection and uncertain incremental value limit interpretation. Multisite validation is required before implementation.
SN - 0886-022X
SN - 1525-6049
ER -