Contribution of achieving poverty eradication (Sustainable Development Goal 1) to the end tuberculosis strategy in Latin America: a multi-country mathematical modelling analysis
5 affiliations
- 1Institute of Collective Health, Federal University of Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
- 2São Paulo State University (UNESP), Institute of Chemistry, Araraquara, Brazil
- 3Department of Statistics, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
- 4Faculty of Population and Health Policy, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, England, UK
- 5Barcelona Institute for Global Health, Barcelona, Spain
Abstract
Objectives: To provide tuberculosis (TB) incidence estimates for different Latin American countries, evaluating the contribution to achieving poverty eradication.
Design: We developed a mathematical model of TB dynamics using ordinary differential equations. Using published data, we estimated TB incidence across various poverty scenarios.
Setting: Latin American countries: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru.
Interventions: Our analysis included demographics and poverty data across three scenarios: (1) baseline, (2) increasing and (3) decreasing poverty levels.
Primary and secondary outcome measures: We projected trends in new TB notifications from 2020 to 2035 using a TB compartmental model, which incorporates the poverty effects with country-specific data from 2000 to 2019.
Results: The forecasted trends of our poverty eradication scenario by 2030 show reductions in a range of 32.27% (95% CI 36.58% to 25.13%) to 48.56% (95% CI 54.15% to 42.75%) in the TB incidence in comparison with the baseline, with a total number of 516,132 (465,192 to 572,526) avoided TB notifications over the period. The increasing poverty scenario led to an incidence increase ranging from 20.02% (95% CI 5.16% to 35.42%) to 50.20% (95% CI 36.47% to 60.76%) in comparison with the baseline.
Conclusions: Achieving SDG1 of poverty eradication in Latin America by 2030, particularly through the enhancement and expansion of social protection programmes, could significantly contribute to the goals of the End TB Strategy and greatly reduce the tuberculosis burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
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BibTeX
@article{bertoni2026contribution,
title = {{Contribution of achieving poverty eradication (Sustainable Development Goal 1) to the end tuberculosis strategy in Latin America: a multi-country mathematical modelling analysis}},
author = {Ana Paula Santin Bertoni and Felipe Alves Rubio and José Alejandro Ordoñez and Rodrigo Volmir Rezende Anderle and Priscila Fernanda Porto Scaff Gestal and Delia Boccia and Daniella Calvacanti and Davide Rasella},
journal = {BMJ Open},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015},
url = {https://bmjopen.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Contribution of achieving poverty eradication (Sustainable Development Goal 1) to the end tuberculosis strategy in Latin America: a multi-country mathematical modelling analysis
AU - Ana Paula Santin Bertoni
AU - Felipe Alves Rubio
AU - José Alejandro Ordoñez
AU - Rodrigo Volmir Rezende Anderle
AU - Priscila Fernanda Porto Scaff Gestal
AU - Delia Boccia
AU - Daniella Calvacanti
AU - Davide Rasella
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/27
JO - BMJ Open
DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015
UR - https://bmjopen.bmj.com/lookup/doi/10.1136/bmjopen-2026-121015
AB - Objectives: To provide tuberculosis (TB) incidence estimates for different Latin American countries, evaluating the contribution to achieving poverty eradication. Design: We developed a mathematical model of TB dynamics using ordinary differential equations. Using published data, we estimated TB incidence across various poverty scenarios. Setting: Latin American countries: Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. Interventions: Our analysis included demographics and poverty data across three scenarios: (1) baseline, (2) increasing and (3) decreasing poverty levels. Primary and secondary outcome measures: We projected trends in new TB notifications from 2020 to 2035 using a TB compartmental model, which incorporates the poverty effects with country-specific data from 2000 to 2019. Results: The forecasted trends of our poverty eradication scenario by 2030 show reductions in a range of 32.27% (95% CI 36.58% to 25.13%) to 48.56% (95% CI 54.15% to 42.75%) in the TB incidence in comparison with the baseline, with a total number of 516,132 (465,192 to 572,526) avoided TB notifications over the period. The increasing poverty scenario led to an incidence increase ranging from 20.02% (95% CI 5.16% to 35.42%) to 50.20% (95% CI 36.47% to 60.76%) in comparison with the baseline. Conclusions: Achieving SDG1 of poverty eradication in Latin America by 2030, particularly through the enhancement and expansion of social protection programmes, could significantly contribute to the goals of the End TB Strategy and greatly reduce the tuberculosis burden in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
SN - 2044-6055
SN - 2044-6055
ER -