Evolution of rockfall risk following changes in hazard and exposure: Application to a road section in the Zermatt valley, Swiss Alps
Abstract
Due to rapid and intense socio-environmental transformations in rockfall-prone areas, risk assessment accounting for non-stationary conditions becomes a crucial issue for supporting long-term land-use zoning and adapting mitigation strategies. During the past few decades, several studies have examined the impacts of global warming on rockfall activity, especially at high-elevation sites. By contrast, concomitant changes in exposure, such as modifications in road traffic with changes in mountain tourism and social practices, have received little attention, making the overall changes in risks largely unknown. This study therefore proposes a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the cantonal road in Balmatten (Zermatt Valley, Swiss Alps), which evaluates the respective and overall effects of rockfall frequency and traffic density changes on rockfall risks at three time steps: 1960, 2010 and 2060. The approach relies on strong, yet reasonable assumptions that minimize computational burden. Results demonstrate the significant impact of road traffic fluctuations (+818%) on risk estimates, which largely outweighs the effects of climate change (+100%) on rockfall risk over the 1960-2060 period. Despite several challenges inherent to the implementation of non-stationary QRA approaches, these findings demonstrate their value to support adaptation of mountain territories in a time of global change.
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BibTeX
@article{meisburger2026evolution,
title = {{Evolution of rockfall risk following changes in hazard and exposure: Application to a road section in the Zermatt valley, Swiss Alps}},
author = {Elsa Meisburger and Manon Farvacque and Nicolas Eckert and Christophe Corona and Franck Bourrier and Markus Stoffel},
journal = {Geomorphology},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1016/j.geomorph.2026.110190},
url = {https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05766943v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Evolution of rockfall risk following changes in hazard and exposure: Application to a road section in the Zermatt valley, Swiss Alps
AU - Elsa Meisburger
AU - Manon Farvacque
AU - Nicolas Eckert
AU - Christophe Corona
AU - Franck Bourrier
AU - Markus Stoffel
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/28
JO - Geomorphology
DO - 10.1016/j.geomorph.2026.110190
UR - https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05766943v1
AB - Due to rapid and intense socio-environmental transformations in rockfall-prone areas, risk assessment accounting for non-stationary conditions becomes a crucial issue for supporting long-term land-use zoning and adapting mitigation strategies. During the past few decades, several studies have examined the impacts of global warming on rockfall activity, especially at high-elevation sites. By contrast, concomitant changes in exposure, such as modifications in road traffic with changes in mountain tourism and social practices, have received little attention, making the overall changes in risks largely unknown. This study therefore proposes a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the cantonal road in Balmatten (Zermatt Valley, Swiss Alps), which evaluates the respective and overall effects of rockfall frequency and traffic density changes on rockfall risks at three time steps: 1960, 2010 and 2060. The approach relies on strong, yet reasonable assumptions that minimize computational burden. Results demonstrate the significant impact of road traffic fluctuations (+818%) on risk estimates, which largely outweighs the effects of climate change (+100%) on rockfall risk over the 1960-2060 period. Despite several challenges inherent to the implementation of non-stationary QRA approaches, these findings demonstrate their value to support adaptation of mountain territories in a time of global change.
SN - 0169-555X
SN - 0169-555X
ER -