From Hazard to Resource: A Screening‐Level Assessment of Glacial Lake Hydropower Potential and Development Suitability in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalaya
7 affiliations
- 1College of Earth and Environmental Sciences Lanzhou University Lanzhou China
- 2State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources (TPESER) Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
- 3Climate Change Impacts and Risks in the Anthropocene (C‐CIA) Institute for Environmental Sciences University of Geneva Geneva Switzerland
- 4Key Laboratory for Water and Sediment Sciences College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking University Ministry of Education Beijing China
- 5State Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Chinese Academy of Sciences Urumqi China
- 6Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction Sichuan University Chengdu China
- 7Midui Glacier‐Guangxie Glacial Lake Disaster Field Science Observation and Research Station in Tibet Autonomous Region Nyingchi China
Abstract
Climate warming accelerates glacier retreat and glacial lake expansion, creating hydropower opportunities while increasing flood hazards. Despite extensive research on glacial lake hazards, assessments of hydropower potential and development suitability remain limited. Here, we quantify the theoretical hydropower potential of 37 glacial lakes in the Poiqu river basin, central Himalaya, by integrating multi‐scenario climate projections with annual lake water budget reconstruction to estimate hydropower‐relevant inflow across four operational stages during 2025–2100 and by deriving available hydraulic heads through hierarchical river network and topographic gradient analyses. We develop a multi‐criteria framework to evaluate environmental, technical, and economic suitability and prioritize lakes. Across four climate scenarios, basin‐wide mean annual generation is projected at about 212.8 GWhr yr−1 during Stage I (risk mitigation, 2025–2030), followed by about 200.6, 197.0, and 194.3 GWhr yr−1 during Stages II–IV (adaptive generation, 2031–2100), respectively. Paqupuco is identified as the top‐priority site, with annual generation potential of about 14.3 GWhr yr−1 and a suitability score of 80.6. At the regional screening scale, modeled operations could reduce the maximum storage of high‐risk lakes, such as Gangxico and Galongco, to about 71% of their initial capacities. Sensitivity analyses indicate that basin‐wide estimates and leading candidates are broadly stable under the tested water budget and weighting assumptions. By linking hydropower resource assessment with climate‐adaptive hazard governance, this study provides a regional screening framework for jointly evaluating clean energy opportunities and glacial lake outburst flood mitigation in glacierized mountain regions.
Related
- A comprehensive suitability assessment framework for low impact development (LID) incorporating life-cycle carbon benefits: A case study in Wuhan, China
- Spatial assessment of blue-green tourism potential and sustainable development priorities in the Central Aran economic region of Azerbaijan
- Hydrogeochemical characteristics, controlling processes, and irrigation suitability assessment of groundwater in the Sanjiang Plain, China
- Assessment of tomography-derived three-dimensional cloud information and its suitability for downstream applications
- Seasonal hydropower forecast framework using a combination of deep learning and physics-based methods
BibTeX
@article{zhu2026from,
title = {{From Hazard to Resource: A Screening‐Level Assessment of Glacial Lake Hydropower Potential and Development Suitability in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalaya}},
author = {Jiyao Zhu and Guoxiong Zheng and Guoqing Zhang and Wenfeng Chen and Yan Zhong and Simon Allen and Dongfeng Li and Ye Yuan and Yihua Zhong and Shijin Wang and Xiaojun Bu and Markus Stoffel},
journal = {Water Resources Research},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1029/2025wr041374},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041374},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - From Hazard to Resource: A Screening‐Level Assessment of Glacial Lake Hydropower Potential and Development Suitability in the Poiqu River Basin, Central Himalaya
AU - Jiyao Zhu
AU - Guoxiong Zheng
AU - Guoqing Zhang
AU - Wenfeng Chen
AU - Yan Zhong
AU - Simon Allen
AU - Dongfeng Li
AU - Ye Yuan
AU - Yihua Zhong
AU - Shijin Wang
AU - Xiaojun Bu
AU - Markus Stoffel
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/26
JO - Water Resources Research
DO - 10.1029/2025wr041374
UR - https://doi.org/10.1029/2025wr041374
AB - Climate warming accelerates glacier retreat and glacial lake expansion, creating hydropower opportunities while increasing flood hazards. Despite extensive research on glacial lake hazards, assessments of hydropower potential and development suitability remain limited. Here, we quantify the theoretical hydropower potential of 37 glacial lakes in the Poiqu river basin, central Himalaya, by integrating multi‐scenario climate projections with annual lake water budget reconstruction to estimate hydropower‐relevant inflow across four operational stages during 2025–2100 and by deriving available hydraulic heads through hierarchical river network and topographic gradient analyses. We develop a multi‐criteria framework to evaluate environmental, technical, and economic suitability and prioritize lakes. Across four climate scenarios, basin‐wide mean annual generation is projected at about 212.8 GWhr yr−1 during Stage I (risk mitigation, 2025–2030), followed by about 200.6, 197.0, and 194.3 GWhr yr−1 during Stages II–IV (adaptive generation, 2031–2100), respectively. Paqupuco is identified as the top‐priority site, with annual generation potential of about 14.3 GWhr yr−1 and a suitability score of 80.6. At the regional screening scale, modeled operations could reduce the maximum storage of high‐risk lakes, such as Gangxico and Galongco, to about 71% of their initial capacities. Sensitivity analyses indicate that basin‐wide estimates and leading candidates are broadly stable under the tested water budget and weighting assumptions. By linking hydropower resource assessment with climate‐adaptive hazard governance, this study provides a regional screening framework for jointly evaluating clean energy opportunities and glacial lake outburst flood mitigation in glacierized mountain regions.
SN - 1944-7973
SN - 0043-1397
ER -