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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

Uncertainty estimation of incoming comet trajectories with a thermophysical non-gravitational force model for Comet Interceptor encounter planning

  • N Attree1
  • P de Boer2,1
  • P Gutiérrez1
  • P Lacerda3
  • M Küppers4
  • D Dirkx2
4 affiliations
  1. 1Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC) , Glorieta de la Astronomía s/n. 18008 Granada ,
  2. 2Luchtvaart- en Ruimtevaarttechniek, Technische Universiteit Delft , Kluyverweg 1, 2629 HS Delft ,
  3. 3Leiden Observatory, Leiden University , PO Box 9513, NL-2300 RA Leiden ,
  4. 4European Space Agency (ESA) , ESAC, Camino Bajo del Castillo s/n, 28692 Villanueva de la Cañada, Madrid ,
Open at sourcePDFDOICite

Abstract

The European Space Agency Comet Interceptor mission is designed to fly-by an as-yet undetermined incoming long-period or dynamically-new comet, which will require an accurate prediction of its trajectory. Cometary orbits are perturbed from purely gravitational trajectories by non-gravitational accelerations (NGAs) stemming from their outgassing, however, and these must be taken into account in the navigation. We here test the ability of ground-based astrometry and standard NGA-fitting techniques to predict the position and velocity of incoming comets perturbed by a Monte Carlo sampled thermophysical acceleration model. We find that, due to the difficulties of predicting NGA evolution as well as the limitations of reasonably simulated astrometry, predicted accuracies are unlikely to meet the mission goals of 1000 km and 1 m s−1 in position and velocity, sixty days before intercept. We instead recommend expanded uncertainties of 10,000 km and several m s−1. Our NGA fits struggle to reproduce the reference accelerations and trajectories when outgassing is rising steeply at a few AU-incoming, but with more observations up until perihelion, do eventually converge, leading to good estimates of many of the underlying acceleration parameters even for half an orbital arc.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{attree2026uncertainty,
  title = {{Uncertainty estimation of incoming comet trajectories with a thermophysical non-gravitational force model for Comet Interceptor encounter planning}},
  author = {N Attree and P de Boer and P Gutiérrez and P Lacerda and M Küppers and D Dirkx},
  journal = {Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1093/mnras/stag2023},
  url = {https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article/doi/10.1093/mnras/stag2023/8994287},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Uncertainty estimation of incoming comet trajectories with a thermophysical non-gravitational force model for Comet Interceptor encounter planning
AU  - N Attree
AU  - P de Boer
AU  - P Gutiérrez
AU  - P Lacerda
AU  - M Küppers
AU  - D Dirkx
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/23
JO  - Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society
DO  - 10.1093/mnras/stag2023
UR  - https://academic.oup.com/mnras/advance-article/doi/10.1093/mnras/stag2023/8994287
AB  - The European Space Agency Comet Interceptor mission is designed to fly-by an as-yet undetermined incoming long-period or dynamically-new comet, which will require an accurate prediction of its trajectory. Cometary orbits are perturbed from purely gravitational trajectories by non-gravitational accelerations (NGAs) stemming from their outgassing, however, and these must be taken into account in the navigation. We here test the ability of ground-based astrometry and standard NGA-fitting techniques to predict the position and velocity of incoming comets perturbed by a Monte Carlo sampled thermophysical acceleration model. We find that, due to the difficulties of predicting NGA evolution as well as the limitations of reasonably simulated astrometry, predicted accuracies are unlikely to meet the mission goals of 1000 km and 1 m s−1 in position and velocity, sixty days before intercept. We instead recommend expanded uncertainties of 10,000 km and several m s−1. Our NGA fits struggle to reproduce the reference accelerations and trajectories when outgassing is rising steeply at a few AU-incoming, but with more observations up until perihelion, do eventually converge, leading to good estimates of many of the underlying acceleration parameters even for half an orbital arc.
SN  - 0035-8711
SN  - 1365-2966
ER  -