Uncertainties in recent tropical stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes restrict our understanding of future total column ozone change
- 1NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory (Boulder, United States of America)
Abstract
A variety of chemical and dynamical processes in the troposphere and stratosphere affect tropical total column ozone (TCO), the net effect of which may cause changes in surface UV radiation and impact human and ecosystem health. We use dynamical linear modeling to estimate changes in tropical TCO and partial column ozone (PCO) in the troposphere and three stratospheric layers to assess agreement between satellite composites and chemistry-climate model simulations from two multi-model experiments (CCMI-1 and CCMI-2022). While both model experiments show tropical TCO increases over 2000–2021, multimodel-mean CCMI-2022 changes (+2.5 DU) agree slightly better with observations (+3.3 DU) than CCMI-1 (+1.6 DU). However, this overall agreement obscures multiple systematic differences in PCO changes between the models and observations across atmospheric layers. For example, since 2000 tropical tropospheric PCO increased significantly in CCMI-2022 (+1.5 DU) but not in CCMI-1 (+0.3 DU), largely explaining the difference in TCO changes. Also, despite nearly identical stratospheric PCO changes, CCMI-2022 changes are slightly more negative than CCMI-1 in the lower stratosphere (by ∼ 0.5 DU) and more positive in the middle/upper stratosphere. Crucially, substantial differences exist between observational PCO changes, particularly in the troposphere and middle/upper stratosphere, and these disagreements limit the ability to evaluate CCM fidelity for past changes. While early and late century trends are correlated across models, suggesting a potential emergent constraint on ozone, the spread in observational trends means they are unable to provide guidance on the credibility of model projections for a given emissions scenario.
Versions
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BibTeX
@article{davis2026uncertainties,
title = {{Uncertainties in recent tropical stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes restrict our understanding of future total column ozone change}},
author = {Sean M. Davis and William T. Ball and Yue Jia and Gabriel Chiodo and Justin A. Alsing and James Keeble and Hideharu Akiyoshi and Carlo Arosio and Ewa M. Bednarz and Andreas Chrysanthou and Melanie Coldewey-Egbers and Robert Damadeo and Sandip Dhomse and Mohamadou A. Diallo and Simone Dietmuller and Roland Eichinger and Stacey Frith and Birgit Hassler and Michaela I. Hegglin and Daan Hubert and Patrick Jöckel and Béatrice Josse and Natalya Kramarova and Diego Loyola and Eliane Maillard Barras and Marion Marchand and Olaf Morgenstern and David Plummer and Robert W. Portmann and Karen H. Rosenlof and Alexei Rozanov and Viktoria F. Sofieva and Johannes Staehelin and Timofei Sukhodolov and Kleareti Tourpali and Ronald J. Van der A and H. J. Ray Wang and Krzysztof Wargan and Shingo Watanabe and Mark Weber and Jeannette D. Wild and Yousuke Yamashita and Jerry Ziemke},
journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5194/acp-26-13817-2026},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05529685v2},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Uncertainties in recent tropical stratospheric and tropospheric ozone changes restrict our understanding of future total column ozone change
AU - Sean M. Davis
AU - William T. Ball
AU - Yue Jia
AU - Gabriel Chiodo
AU - Justin A. Alsing
AU - James Keeble
AU - Hideharu Akiyoshi
AU - Carlo Arosio
AU - Ewa M. Bednarz
AU - Andreas Chrysanthou
AU - Melanie Coldewey-Egbers
AU - Robert Damadeo
AU - Sandip Dhomse
AU - Mohamadou A. Diallo
AU - Simone Dietmuller
AU - Roland Eichinger
AU - Stacey Frith
AU - Birgit Hassler
AU - Michaela I. Hegglin
AU - Daan Hubert
AU - Patrick Jöckel
AU - Béatrice Josse
AU - Natalya Kramarova
AU - Diego Loyola
AU - Eliane Maillard Barras
AU - Marion Marchand
AU - Olaf Morgenstern
AU - David Plummer
AU - Robert W. Portmann
AU - Karen H. Rosenlof
AU - Alexei Rozanov
AU - Viktoria F. Sofieva
AU - Johannes Staehelin
AU - Timofei Sukhodolov
AU - Kleareti Tourpali
AU - Ronald J. Van der A
AU - H. J. Ray Wang
AU - Krzysztof Wargan
AU - Shingo Watanabe
AU - Mark Weber
AU - Jeannette D. Wild
AU - Yousuke Yamashita
AU - Jerry Ziemke
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/02
JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
DO - 10.5194/acp-26-13817-2026
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05529685v2
AB - A variety of chemical and dynamical processes in the troposphere and stratosphere affect tropical total column ozone (TCO), the net effect of which may cause changes in surface UV radiation and impact human and ecosystem health. We use dynamical linear modeling to estimate changes in tropical TCO and partial column ozone (PCO) in the troposphere and three stratospheric layers to assess agreement between satellite composites and chemistry-climate model simulations from two multi-model experiments (CCMI-1 and CCMI-2022). While both model experiments show tropical TCO increases over 2000–2021, multimodel-mean CCMI-2022 changes (+2.5 DU) agree slightly better with observations (+3.3 DU) than CCMI-1 (+1.6 DU). However, this overall agreement obscures multiple systematic differences in PCO changes between the models and observations across atmospheric layers. For example, since 2000 tropical tropospheric PCO increased significantly in CCMI-2022 (+1.5 DU) but not in CCMI-1 (+0.3 DU), largely explaining the difference in TCO changes. Also, despite nearly identical stratospheric PCO changes, CCMI-2022 changes are slightly more negative than CCMI-1 in the lower stratosphere (by ∼ 0.5 DU) and more positive in the middle/upper stratosphere. Crucially, substantial differences exist between observational PCO changes, particularly in the troposphere and middle/upper stratosphere, and these disagreements limit the ability to evaluate CCM fidelity for past changes. While early and late century trends are correlated across models, suggesting a potential emergent constraint on ozone, the spread in observational trends means they are unable to provide guidance on the credibility of model projections for a given emissions scenario.
SN - 1680-7316
SN - 1680-7324
ER -