Climate Predicts Tree Dispersal Strategies Across Brazil's Ecosystems

@article{souza2026climate,
  title = {{Climate Predicts Tree Dispersal Strategies Across Brazil's Ecosystems}},
  author = {Fernanda C Souza and Vinícius Andrade Maia and Renata Françoso and Matheus Coutinho Freitas de Oliveira and Ana Beatriz Ligo and Bruno X Pinho and Jesús Aguirre‐gutiérrez and Martin Sullivan and Larissa Rocha‐santos and Laura de Brito Évora and Leonardo de Sousa Miranda and María Natalia Umaña and Pablo R Stevenson and Paulo Amador Tavares and Adriane Esquivel‐muelbert and Alan Bernardes da Silveira and Ana Magalhães Cordeiro Teixeira and Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto and Átila Oliveira and Aurora Levesley and Beatriz Schwantes Marimon and Ben Hur Marimon Junior and Carlos Joly and Carlos A Peres and Carolina V Castilho and Celice Alexandre Silva and Danielle Storck‐tonon and Domingos Cardoso and Domingos de Jesus Rodrigues and Dora M Villela and Douglas C Morton and Eddie Lenza de Oliveira and Edmar Almeida de Oliveira and Eduardo Hase and Eliana Ramos and Elmar Veenendaal and Erika Berenguer and Estelle Dugachard and Everton Almeida and Fabrício Alvim Carvalho and Fernanda Coelho de Souza and Fernando Elias and Filipe M França and Flávia R C Costa and Flávia Delgado Santana and Flávia Rodrigues Barbosa and Foster Brown and Françoise Yoko Ishida and Frederico Augusto Guimarães Guilherme and Gabriel Damasco and Georgia Pickavance and Geraldo Wilson Fernandes and Haroldo Cavalcante de Lima and Helena Lemos Rocha and Henrique A Mews and Iêda Leão Do Amaral and Igor Broggio and Jarcilene Silva de Almeida and John E B L Cunha and Jhonathan Oliveira Silva},
  journal = {Global Ecology and Biogeography},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.1111/geb.70285},
  url = {https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05781743v1},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Climate Predicts Tree Dispersal Strategies Across Brazil's Ecosystems
AU  - Fernanda C Souza
AU  - Vinícius Andrade Maia
AU  - Renata Françoso
AU  - Matheus Coutinho Freitas de Oliveira
AU  - Ana Beatriz Ligo
AU  - Bruno X Pinho
AU  - Jesús Aguirre‐gutiérrez
AU  - Martin Sullivan
AU  - Larissa Rocha‐santos
AU  - Laura de Brito Évora
AU  - Leonardo de Sousa Miranda
AU  - María Natalia Umaña
AU  - Pablo R Stevenson
AU  - Paulo Amador Tavares
AU  - Adriane Esquivel‐muelbert
AU  - Alan Bernardes da Silveira
AU  - Ana Magalhães Cordeiro Teixeira
AU  - Ângelo Gilberto Manzatto
AU  - Átila Oliveira
AU  - Aurora Levesley
AU  - Beatriz Schwantes Marimon
AU  - Ben Hur Marimon Junior
AU  - Carlos Joly
AU  - Carlos A Peres
AU  - Carolina V Castilho
AU  - Celice Alexandre Silva
AU  - Danielle Storck‐tonon
AU  - Domingos Cardoso
AU  - Domingos de Jesus Rodrigues
AU  - Dora M Villela
AU  - Douglas C Morton
AU  - Eddie Lenza de Oliveira
AU  - Edmar Almeida de Oliveira
AU  - Eduardo Hase
AU  - Eliana Ramos
AU  - Elmar Veenendaal
AU  - Erika Berenguer
AU  - Estelle Dugachard
AU  - Everton Almeida
AU  - Fabrício Alvim Carvalho
AU  - Fernanda Coelho de Souza
AU  - Fernando Elias
AU  - Filipe M França
AU  - Flávia R C Costa
AU  - Flávia Delgado Santana
AU  - Flávia Rodrigues Barbosa
AU  - Foster Brown
AU  - Françoise Yoko Ishida
AU  - Frederico Augusto Guimarães Guilherme
AU  - Gabriel Damasco
AU  - Georgia Pickavance
AU  - Geraldo Wilson Fernandes
AU  - Haroldo Cavalcante de Lima
AU  - Helena Lemos Rocha
AU  - Henrique A Mews
AU  - Iêda Leão Do Amaral
AU  - Igor Broggio
AU  - Jarcilene Silva de Almeida
AU  - John E B L Cunha
AU  - Jhonathan Oliveira Silva
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/06
JO  - Global Ecology and Biogeography
DO  - 10.1111/geb.70285
UR  - https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-05781743v1
AB  - Aim: We investigate the distribution of dispersal modes-endozoochory (via animal ingestion), synzoochory (via animal seed accumulation) and anemochory (via wind)-and seed mass of woody plants across Brazilian ecosystems, testing whether their relative abundance in local plant communities could be predicted by climate, edaphic factors and dispersal agents (e.g., the main vectors moving seeds). We expected climate to be the main predictor of dispersal strategy abundance. Location : Brazilian ecosystems (Amazon, Atlantic Forest, Cerrado and Caatinga). Time Period : 2004–2020. Major Taxa Studied: Woody angiosperms, trees and shrubs. Methods : We assigned seed mass to 1984 species and dispersal mode to 2203 species within 300 old-growth and non-flooded plots. We employed Random Forest regressions to assess the influence of water availability, temperature seasonality, soil fertility, wind and frugivorous primates on the community-weighted means of seed mass and dispersal modes. We mapped predictions and estimated the area of applicability to identify regions where predictions were reliable. Results Climate was the main factor predicting tree dispersal strategies, followed by dispersal agents or soil properties. Endozoochory was prevalent in wetter regions with high water availability and greater diurnal temperature range. Anemochory was more common in drier regions with low water availability, stronger winds and greater diurnal temperature range, whereas synzoochory was more abundant in areas with low temperature seasonality. Heavier seeds were more prevalent in regions with less seasonal temperatures, smaller diurnal temperature ranges and weaker winds. Main Conclusions Climate is a key predictor of the distribution and prevalence of plants with contrasting dispersal modes and seed masses. We thus expect functional responses to environmental change associated with shifts in the relative abundance of dispersal strategies, with implications for ecosystem services. Our results also highlight the critical role of plot-based datasets in improving our understanding of how environmental factors influence seed dispersal strategies across tropical ecosystems.
SN  - 1466-822X
SN  - 1466-822X
ER  -