Impact of extremely high temperature on future photovoltaic power potential over East Asia
Abstract
As global warming intensifies, the frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures are expected to increase. This will impact the production of photovoltaics (PVs), which are increasingly adopted as an effective alternative to replace fossil fuel-based energy sources and reduce CO2 emissions. Furthermore, extremely high temperature days account for a considerable proportion of days with high PV power potential (PVpot). Therefore, this study investigates changes in PVpot on future extremely high temperature days over East Asia, a region with high greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to extreme climatic events. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was estimated to decrease across all scenarios and future periods. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was predicted to decrease more substantially toward the late 21st century, with a larger magnitude of decrease expected under the high-carbon emissions scenario compared to the low-carbon emissions scenario. By the mid-and late 21st century, PVpot for extremely high temperature days was projected to decrease in PV hotspot areas, particularly in the regions of northern China and southern Mongolia, by up to -7.2 %. The signs of PVpot projections vary across sub-regions under summer mean conditions, while on extremely high temperature days, PVpot is consistently expected to decrease in all regions. This suggests that extremely high temperatures further intensify the decrease in PVpot. Moreover, under extremely high-temperature conditions, near-surface air temperature has been identified as the primary driver of projected decreases in PVpot among the climate variables considered; its influence is expected to intensify over time, thereby accelerating PVpot decreases under the high-carbon emissions scenario.
Versions
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BibTeX
@misc{park2026impact,
title = {{Impact of extremely high temperature on future photovoltaic power potential over East Asia}},
author = {Changyong Park and Ana Juzbasic and Dong-Hyun Cha and Seung-Ki Min and Joong-Bae Ahn and Eun-Chul Chang and Young-Hwa Byun and Youngeun Choi},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.04632},
eprint = {2609.04632},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04632},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Impact of extremely high temperature on future photovoltaic power potential over East Asia
AU - Changyong Park
AU - Ana Juzbasic
AU - Dong-Hyun Cha
AU - Seung-Ki Min
AU - Joong-Bae Ahn
AU - Eun-Chul Chang
AU - Young-Hwa Byun
AU - Youngeun Choi
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/04
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.04632
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04632
AB - As global warming intensifies, the frequency and intensity of extremely high temperatures are expected to increase. This will impact the production of photovoltaics (PVs), which are increasingly adopted as an effective alternative to replace fossil fuel-based energy sources and reduce CO2 emissions. Furthermore, extremely high temperature days account for a considerable proportion of days with high PV power potential (PVpot). Therefore, this study investigates changes in PVpot on future extremely high temperature days over East Asia, a region with high greenhouse gas emissions and vulnerability to extreme climatic events. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was estimated to decrease across all scenarios and future periods. The East Asia-averaged PVpot for extremely high temperature days was predicted to decrease more substantially toward the late 21st century, with a larger magnitude of decrease expected under the high-carbon emissions scenario compared to the low-carbon emissions scenario. By the mid-and late 21st century, PVpot for extremely high temperature days was projected to decrease in PV hotspot areas, particularly in the regions of northern China and southern Mongolia, by up to -7.2 %. The signs of PVpot projections vary across sub-regions under summer mean conditions, while on extremely high temperature days, PVpot is consistently expected to decrease in all regions. This suggests that extremely high temperatures further intensify the decrease in PVpot. Moreover, under extremely high-temperature conditions, near-surface air temperature has been identified as the primary driver of projected decreases in PVpot among the climate variables considered; its influence is expected to intensify over time, thereby accelerating PVpot decreases under the high-carbon emissions scenario.
ER -