Assessment of photovoltaic energy potential over Italy from an ensemble of convection permitting climate models
Abstract
Photovoltaic (PV) energy production is crucial to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and is tightly linked to climate variability and change. In particular, variations in the availability of surface solar radiation impact PV energy potential, while temperature and wind affect PV cell efficiency. Here, for the first time, we evaluate the ability of a 16-member km-scale convection-permitting climate model (CPMs) ensemble to reproduce PV energy potential over Italy. The assessment is conducted at station and national level using ERA5-land reanalysis dataset as reference. Driving climate variables are further evaluated against available high-resolution observations. The quality assessment of CPMs and ERA5-land data reveal an overestimation of downward shortwave radiation at the surface by CPMs (+6% in summer) and underestimation by similar amounts in ERA5-land compared to the high-resolution observational dataset. The 2m temperatures and 10 m wind speeds are slightly overestimated in CPMs as well by 1.24C and 0.54 m/s respectively. Based on this good agreement, the energy potential model previously validated with ERA5-land is applied to CPMs. The CPM ensemble shows realistic diurnal and seasonal cycles, but tends to overestimate PV potential relative to ERA5-land by up to +10 % at individual stations and +13 % at bidding zones, in particular due to the bias in radiation. Ensemble spread is 20% in summer, but significantly lower within model families. These findings support the use of CPM ensembles for climate change impact studies on solar resources, providing high resolution information to support adaptation strategies in power system planning at local scale.
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BibTeX
@article{mathew2026assessment,
title = {{Assessment of photovoltaic energy potential over Italy from an ensemble of convection permitting climate models}},
author = {Milan Mathew and Giorgia Fosser and Marco Gaetani and Anna Malagò and Alberto Ravasi and Andreas Will and Eleni Katragkou and Stergios Kartsios and Marianna Adinolfi and Ozan Mert Göktürk and Hylke de Vries and Rita Cardoso and Pedro M.M. Soares and Andreas Dobler and Sophie Bastin and Merja Tölle and Klaus Goergen and Pierre Nabat and Heimo Truhetz and Luna Santina Lehmann},
journal = {Renewable Energy},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.renene.2026.126467},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05756865v1},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Assessment of photovoltaic energy potential over Italy from an ensemble of convection permitting climate models
AU - Milan Mathew
AU - Giorgia Fosser
AU - Marco Gaetani
AU - Anna Malagò
AU - Alberto Ravasi
AU - Andreas Will
AU - Eleni Katragkou
AU - Stergios Kartsios
AU - Marianna Adinolfi
AU - Ozan Mert Göktürk
AU - Hylke de Vries
AU - Rita Cardoso
AU - Pedro M.M. Soares
AU - Andreas Dobler
AU - Sophie Bastin
AU - Merja Tölle
AU - Klaus Goergen
AU - Pierre Nabat
AU - Heimo Truhetz
AU - Luna Santina Lehmann
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/29
JO - Renewable Energy
DO - 10.1016/j.renene.2026.126467
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05756865v1
AB - Photovoltaic (PV) energy production is crucial to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and is tightly linked to climate variability and change. In particular, variations in the availability of surface solar radiation impact PV energy potential, while temperature and wind affect PV cell efficiency. Here, for the first time, we evaluate the ability of a 16-member km-scale convection-permitting climate model (CPMs) ensemble to reproduce PV energy potential over Italy. The assessment is conducted at station and national level using ERA5-land reanalysis dataset as reference. Driving climate variables are further evaluated against available high-resolution observations. The quality assessment of CPMs and ERA5-land data reveal an overestimation of downward shortwave radiation at the surface by CPMs (+6% in summer) and underestimation by similar amounts in ERA5-land compared to the high-resolution observational dataset. The 2m temperatures and 10 m wind speeds are slightly overestimated in CPMs as well by 1.24C and 0.54 m/s respectively. Based on this good agreement, the energy potential model previously validated with ERA5-land is applied to CPMs. The CPM ensemble shows realistic diurnal and seasonal cycles, but tends to overestimate PV potential relative to ERA5-land by up to +10 % at individual stations and +13 % at bidding zones, in particular due to the bias in radiation. Ensemble spread is 20% in summer, but significantly lower within model families. These findings support the use of CPM ensembles for climate change impact studies on solar resources, providing high resolution information to support adaptation strategies in power system planning at local scale.
SN - 0960-1481
SN - 1879-0682
ER -