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Peer-reviewedCC BYEarth system science data

Global Carbon Budget 2025

  • Pierre Friedlingstein1,2,3,4,5,6,7
  • Michael O'Sullivan5
  • Matthew W. Jones8
  • Robbie M. Andrew9
  • Dorothée C. E. Bakker10
  • Judith Hauck11,12
  • Peter Landschützer13
  • Corinne Le Quéré8
  • Hongmei Li14,15
  • Ingrid T. Luijkx16
  • Glen P. Peters9
  • Wouter Peters17,16
88 more authors
  • Julia Pongratz18,15
  • Clemens Schwingshackl18
  • Stephen Sitch19
  • Josep G. Canadell20
  • Philippe Ciais21
  • Kjetil Schanke
  • Simone R. Alin22
  • Peter M. Anthoni23
  • Leticia Barbero24
  • Nicholas R. Bates25,26
  • Nicolas Bellouin27
  • Alice Benoit-Cattin28
  • Carla F. Berghoff29
  • Raffaele Bernardello30
  • Laurent Bopp31
  • Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika19,32
  • Matthew A. Chamberlain33
  • Naveen Chandra34
  • Frédéric Chevallier21
  • Louise Parsons Chini35
  • Nathan O. Collier36
  • Thomas H. Colligan37
  • Margot Cronin38
  • Laique Djeutchouang39,40
  • Xinyu Dou
  • Matt P. Enright25,26
  • Kazutaka Enyo
  • Michael Erb
  • Wiley Evans
  • Richard A. Feely22
  • Liang Feng
  • Daniel J. Ford19
  • Adrianna Foster
  • Filippa Fransner
  • Thomas Gasser
  • Marion Gehlen21
  • Thanos Gkritzalis13
  • Jefferson Goncalves De Souza
  • Giacomo Grassi
  • Luke Gregor
  • Nicolas Gruber
  • Bertrand Guenet
  • Özgür Gürses11
  • Kirsty Harrington
  • Ian Harris
  • Jens Heinke
  • George C. Hurtt35
  • Yosuke Iida

60 listed; 100 in total.

40 affiliations
  1. 1Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (Paris, France)
  2. 2Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (Paris, France)
  3. 3Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (Palaiseau, France)
  4. 4Sorbonne Université (Paris, France)
  5. 5University of Exeter (Exeter, United Kingdom)
  6. 6École Normale Supérieure - PSL (Paris, France)
  7. 7École Polytechnique (Palaiseau, France)
  8. 8Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
  9. 9CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, Norway
  10. 10School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
  11. 11Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
  12. 12FB02 Biology/Chemistry Bremen, Universität Bremen, Bremen, Germany
  13. 13Flanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), Jacobsenstraat 1, 8400, Ostend, Belgium
  14. 14Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
  15. 15Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
  16. 16Environmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA, Wageningen, the Netherlands
  17. 17Centre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands
  18. 18Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 München, Germany
  19. 19Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
  20. 20CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2101, Australia
  21. 21Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  22. 22National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
  23. 23Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
  24. 24Rosenstiel School of Marine Atmospheric and Earth Science, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, USA
  25. 25Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, AZ 85287-5502, USA
  26. 26Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS), 17 Biological Lane, St. Georges, GE01, Bermuda
  27. 27Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
  28. 28Marine and Freshwater Research Institute, Reykjavik, Iceland
  29. 29Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero (INIDEP), Paseo Victoria Ocampo No 1, B7602HSA, Mar del Plata, Argentina
  30. 30Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
  31. 31Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, École Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, Paris, France
  32. 32Faculty of Marine Science and Fisheries, Udayana University, Denpasar, Bali, 80361, Indonesia
  33. 33CSIRO Environment, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania 7004, Australia
  34. 34Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
  35. 35Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
  36. 36Computer Science and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
  37. 37Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  38. 38Marine Institute, Rinville, Oranmore, Co Galway H91 R673, Ireland
  39. 39Engr. Computer Science, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, USA
  40. 40School for Climate Studies, Stellenbosch University, Private Bag X1, Matieland, Stellenbosch, 7602, South Africa
Open at sourceDOICite

Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2024, EFOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC/yr), ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2024, GATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr−1, leaving a large negative BIM (−1.7 GtC yr−1), suggesting that the total sink or GATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2024 of +1.1 % (0.2 % to 2.2 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing by 2.3 ppm reaching 425.7 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{friedlingstein2026global,
  title = {{Global Carbon Budget 2025}},
  author = {Pierre Friedlingstein and Michael O'Sullivan and Matthew W. Jones and Robbie M. Andrew and Dorothée C. E. Bakker and Judith Hauck and Peter Landschützer and Corinne Le Quéré and Hongmei Li and Ingrid T. Luijkx and Glen P. Peters and Wouter Peters and Julia Pongratz and Clemens Schwingshackl and Stephen Sitch and Josep G. Canadell and Philippe Ciais and Kjetil Schanke and Simone R. Alin and Peter M. Anthoni and Leticia Barbero and Nicholas R. Bates and Nicolas Bellouin and Alice Benoit-Cattin and Carla F. Berghoff and Raffaele Bernardello and Laurent Bopp and Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika and Matthew A. Chamberlain and Naveen Chandra and Frédéric Chevallier and Louise Parsons Chini and Nathan O. Collier and Thomas H. Colligan and Margot Cronin and Laique Djeutchouang and Xinyu Dou and Matt P. Enright and Kazutaka Enyo and Michael Erb and Wiley Evans and Richard A. Feely and Liang Feng and Daniel J. Ford and Adrianna Foster and Filippa Fransner and Thomas Gasser and Marion Gehlen and Thanos Gkritzalis and Jefferson Goncalves De Souza and Giacomo Grassi and Luke Gregor and Nicolas Gruber and Bertrand Guenet and Özgür Gürses and Kirsty Harrington and Ian Harris and Jens Heinke and George C. Hurtt and Yosuke Iida},
  journal = {Earth system science data},
  year = {2026},
  month = may,
  doi = {10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Global Carbon Budget 2025
AU  - Pierre Friedlingstein
AU  - Michael O'Sullivan
AU  - Matthew W. Jones
AU  - Robbie M. Andrew
AU  - Dorothée C. E. Bakker
AU  - Judith Hauck
AU  - Peter Landschützer
AU  - Corinne Le Quéré
AU  - Hongmei Li
AU  - Ingrid T. Luijkx
AU  - Glen P. Peters
AU  - Wouter Peters
AU  - Julia Pongratz
AU  - Clemens Schwingshackl
AU  - Stephen Sitch
AU  - Josep G. Canadell
AU  - Philippe Ciais
AU  - Kjetil Schanke
AU  - Simone R. Alin
AU  - Peter M. Anthoni
AU  - Leticia Barbero
AU  - Nicholas R. Bates
AU  - Nicolas Bellouin
AU  - Alice Benoit-Cattin
AU  - Carla F. Berghoff
AU  - Raffaele Bernardello
AU  - Laurent Bopp
AU  - Ida Bagus Mandhara Brasika
AU  - Matthew A. Chamberlain
AU  - Naveen Chandra
AU  - Frédéric Chevallier
AU  - Louise Parsons Chini
AU  - Nathan O. Collier
AU  - Thomas H. Colligan
AU  - Margot Cronin
AU  - Laique Djeutchouang
AU  - Xinyu Dou
AU  - Matt P. Enright
AU  - Kazutaka Enyo
AU  - Michael Erb
AU  - Wiley Evans
AU  - Richard A. Feely
AU  - Liang Feng
AU  - Daniel J. Ford
AU  - Adrianna Foster
AU  - Filippa Fransner
AU  - Thomas Gasser
AU  - Marion Gehlen
AU  - Thanos Gkritzalis
AU  - Jefferson Goncalves De Souza
AU  - Giacomo Grassi
AU  - Luke Gregor
AU  - Nicolas Gruber
AU  - Bertrand Guenet
AU  - Özgür Gürses
AU  - Kirsty Harrington
AU  - Ian Harris
AU  - Jens Heinke
AU  - George C. Hurtt
AU  - Yosuke Iida
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/13
JO  - Earth system science data
DO  - 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026
AB  - Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (ELUC) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use and land-use change data. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured at surface stations, and the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The global net uptake of CO2 by the ocean (SOCEAN, called the ocean sink) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2-products. The global net uptake of CO2 by the land (SLAND, called the land sink) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (BIM), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2024, EFOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC/yr), ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, for 2024, GATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr−1, leaving a large negative BIM (−1.7 GtC yr−1), suggesting that the total sink or GATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2024 of +1.1 % (0.2 % to 2.2 %) globally, and atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing by 2.3 ppm reaching 425.7 ppm, 52 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).
SN  - 1866-3508
SN  - 1866-3516
ER  -