Attribution of climate and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial water storage changes in the cold and arid regions of the Indus River Basin
5 affiliations
- 1Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China
- 2Department of Agricultural Engineering, Muhammad Nawaz Shareef University of Agriculture, Multan 66000, Pakistan
- 3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
- 4Department of Irrigation and Drainage, University of Agriculture, DI Khan 29111, Pakistan
- 5Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200241, China; Corresponding author.
Abstract
Study region: The Indus River Basin (IRB) is a major transboundary river basin in South Asia. Study focus: The study focuses on quantifying the respective roles of climatic variability and anthropogenic water use in driving terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) decline using a physically informed, decomposition-based attribution framework and spatiotemporal changes in TWSA over the IRB during April 2002–August 2025 using extended GRACE/GRACE-FO data. New hydrological insights for the region: Trend analysis shows intensification of TWSA decline in humid (−39.8 mm yr⁻¹), semiarid (−34.9 mm yr⁻¹), and cold (−27.4 mm yr⁻¹) regions, while comparatively weak decline in arid (−4.02 mm yr⁻¹) during 2016–2025 as compared to 2002–2015. Signed covariance decomposition identified GWSA as the dominant positive component of TWSA variability (99.9–105.2%), followed by GMB (15.7–18.6%), whereas RZSM, SWE and reconstruction error provided compensating contributions. Basin-scale analysis further shows accelerated groundwater depletion during 2016–2023 (GWS ≈ −13.9 mm yr⁻¹), accompanied by intensified anthropogenic-associated TWSA decline (≈ −16.5 mm yr⁻¹). During 2016–2023, anthropogenic-associated components accounted for the largest relative magnitude shares in arid (59%) and semiarid (67%) regions and across the basin (51%). The climate-related share was largest in the cold region (55%), whereas climate-related and anthropogenic-associated shares were comparable in the humid region (38% and 36%, respectively). These findings highlight the combined influence of human water use and hydroclimatic variability in shaping recent basin-scale water storage decline.
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BibTeX
@article{adnan2026attribution,
title = {{Attribution of climate and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial water storage changes in the cold and arid regions of the Indus River Basin}},
author = {Muhammad Adnan and Leilei Yong and Qiaojuan Xi and Muhammad Saifullah and Qaisar Saddique and Waqas Ul Hussan and Hongkai Gao},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104117},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104117},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Attribution of climate and anthropogenic controls on terrestrial water storage changes in the cold and arid regions of the Indus River Basin
AU - Muhammad Adnan
AU - Leilei Yong
AU - Qiaojuan Xi
AU - Muhammad Saifullah
AU - Qaisar Saddique
AU - Waqas Ul Hussan
AU - Hongkai Gao
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies
DO - 10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104117
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.104117
AB - Study region: The Indus River Basin (IRB) is a major transboundary river basin in South Asia. Study focus: The study focuses on quantifying the respective roles of climatic variability and anthropogenic water use in driving terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) decline using a physically informed, decomposition-based attribution framework and spatiotemporal changes in TWSA over the IRB during April 2002–August 2025 using extended GRACE/GRACE-FO data. New hydrological insights for the region: Trend analysis shows intensification of TWSA decline in humid (−39.8 mm yr⁻¹), semiarid (−34.9 mm yr⁻¹), and cold (−27.4 mm yr⁻¹) regions, while comparatively weak decline in arid (−4.02 mm yr⁻¹) during 2016–2025 as compared to 2002–2015. Signed covariance decomposition identified GWSA as the dominant positive component of TWSA variability (99.9–105.2%), followed by GMB (15.7–18.6%), whereas RZSM, SWE and reconstruction error provided compensating contributions. Basin-scale analysis further shows accelerated groundwater depletion during 2016–2023 (GWS ≈ −13.9 mm yr⁻¹), accompanied by intensified anthropogenic-associated TWSA decline (≈ −16.5 mm yr⁻¹). During 2016–2023, anthropogenic-associated components accounted for the largest relative magnitude shares in arid (59%) and semiarid (67%) regions and across the basin (51%). The climate-related share was largest in the cold region (55%), whereas climate-related and anthropogenic-associated shares were comparable in the humid region (38% and 36%, respectively). These findings highlight the combined influence of human water use and hydroclimatic variability in shaping recent basin-scale water storage decline.
SN - 2214-5818
ER -