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Peer-reviewedCC BYNature

The past and future impact of climate change on childhood malaria in Africa

  • Colin J. Carlson1,2,3
  • Tamma A. Carleton4,5,6
  • Romaric C. Odoulami7
  • Cullen D. Molitor8
  • Christopher H. Trisos7
8 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. [email protected]
  2. 2Public Health Modeling Unit, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. [email protected]
  3. 3Yale Center on Climate Change and Health, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. [email protected]
  4. 4Center for Effective Global Action, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA. [email protected]
  5. 5Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA. [email protected]
  6. 6National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA, USA. [email protected]
  7. 7African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
  8. 8Center for Effective Global Action, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA
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Abstract

Despite recent advances in climate change attribution, many health impacts remain unmeasured 1 . Here we leverage over a century of clinical data 2 to investigate whether human-caused climate change has increased the burden of childhood malaria across sub-Saharan Africa. We find a robust effect of temperature and extreme precipitation on prevalence, consistent with previous findings at local scales and in laboratory experiments. We estimate that rising temperatures have probably increased malaria in East and southern Africa, but averted a comparable number of cases in West Africa, with a net impact of 1 excess case per 1,000 children (95% confidence interval (CI) −4 to 6) across the continent. Over the coming century, we project that climate change could marginally accelerate the elimination of malaria in West and central Africa, where the present-day burden is highest; across the continent, this could avert 1 (low greenhouse gas emissions: 95% CI −2 to 6) to 20 (high greenhouse gas emissions: 95% CI 0–52) cases per 1,000 children by the end of the century. However, reducing future global warming from 3 °C to under 2 °C could prevent an average of 5 excess cases per 1,000 in high-elevation (more than 1 km) East Africa and in southern Africa (95% CIs −3 to 13 and −4 to 14, respectively) by 2100. Our study resolves a decades-old debate about one of the first suspected health impacts of climate change, providing a template for future work measuring its true global burden.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{carlson2026past,
  title = {{The past and future impact of climate change on childhood malaria in Africa}},
  author = {Colin J. Carlson and Tamma A. Carleton and Romaric C. Odoulami and Cullen D. Molitor and Christopher H. Trisos},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The past and future impact of climate change on childhood malaria in Africa
AU  - Colin J. Carlson
AU  - Tamma A. Carleton
AU  - Romaric C. Odoulami
AU  - Cullen D. Molitor
AU  - Christopher H. Trisos
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/29
JO  - Nature
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10840-w
AB  - Despite recent advances in climate change attribution, many health impacts remain unmeasured 1 . Here we leverage over a century of clinical data 2 to investigate whether human-caused climate change has increased the burden of childhood malaria across sub-Saharan Africa. We find a robust effect of temperature and extreme precipitation on prevalence, consistent with previous findings at local scales and in laboratory experiments. We estimate that rising temperatures have probably increased malaria in East and southern Africa, but averted a comparable number of cases in West Africa, with a net impact of 1 excess case per 1,000 children (95% confidence interval (CI) −4 to 6) across the continent. Over the coming century, we project that climate change could marginally accelerate the elimination of malaria in West and central Africa, where the present-day burden is highest; across the continent, this could avert 1 (low greenhouse gas emissions: 95% CI −2 to 6) to 20 (high greenhouse gas emissions: 95% CI 0–52) cases per 1,000 children by the end of the century. However, reducing future global warming from 3 °C to under 2 °C could prevent an average of 5 excess cases per 1,000 in high-elevation (more than 1 km) East Africa and in southern Africa (95% CIs −3 to 13 and −4 to 14, respectively) by 2100. Our study resolves a decades-old debate about one of the first suspected health impacts of climate change, providing a template for future work measuring its true global burden.
SN  - 0028-0836
SN  - 1476-4687
ER  -