Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model for Trop-2 Targeting Antibody-Drug Conjugate in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer
- 1Johns Hopkins University
Abstract
TROP2-targeted antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) have demonstrated promising clinical activity in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) as monotherapies; however, therapeutic benefit varies among patients. Combination strategies pairing TROP2-targeted ADCs with immune checkpoint inhibitors are also being investigated. Elucidating the mechanistic drivers of ADC monotherapy variability and enabling the rational development of combination regimens require computational frameworks that integrate ADC pharmacology with tumor-immune interactions. A quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model is presented that incorporates an ADC module into our established immuno-oncology model for TNBC. The module captures ADC and payload pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. TNBC heterogeneity is represented by two tumor cell clones with high and low TROP2 expression, informed by prior characterizations, and differential sensitivity to the ADC payload is incorporated as an intrinsic property of each clone. Although generalizable, the model was applied to the TROP2-targeted ADC sacituzumab govitecan (SG, TRODELVY). A virtual patient cohort was generated using Latin hypercube sampling and calibrated against objective response rate (ORR) data from SG Phase I/II TNBC basket trial. The model predicted an ORR of 33.2% consistent with ASCENT study (NCT02574455). Simulations suggest TROP2-mediated delivery contributes modestly to SG efficacy with tumor exposure driven largely by systemically released SN-38 payload being sufficient to induce cytotoxicity. Tumor heterogeneity emerged as a key determinant of response with ORR increasing as the fraction of payload-sensitive clones increased. Overall, this QSP framework for TROP2-targeted ADCs accounts for TNBC heterogeneity and is extendable to other ADCs and targets enabling interrogation of ADC mechanisms of action in conjunction with tumor-immune interactions.
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BibTeX
@misc{dogru2026quantitative,
title = {{Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model for Trop-2 Targeting Antibody-Drug Conjugate in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer}},
author = {S. Dogru and A. Suresh and E. P. Bowman and A. Marathe and A. M. Hussain and A. S. Popel},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.20.752985},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.20.752985v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Quantitative Systems Pharmacology Model for Trop-2 Targeting Antibody-Drug Conjugate in Triple-Negative Breast Cancer
AU - S. Dogru
AU - A. Suresh
AU - E. P. Bowman
AU - A. Marathe
AU - A. M. Hussain
AU - A. S. Popel
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/20
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.20.752985
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.20.752985v1
AB - TROP2-targeted antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) have demonstrated promising clinical activity in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) as monotherapies; however, therapeutic benefit varies among patients. Combination strategies pairing TROP2-targeted ADCs with immune checkpoint inhibitors are also being investigated. Elucidating the mechanistic drivers of ADC monotherapy variability and enabling the rational development of combination regimens require computational frameworks that integrate ADC pharmacology with tumor-immune interactions. A quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) model is presented that incorporates an ADC module into our established immuno-oncology model for TNBC. The module captures ADC and payload pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics. TNBC heterogeneity is represented by two tumor cell clones with high and low TROP2 expression, informed by prior characterizations, and differential sensitivity to the ADC payload is incorporated as an intrinsic property of each clone. Although generalizable, the model was applied to the TROP2-targeted ADC sacituzumab govitecan (SG, TRODELVY). A virtual patient cohort was generated using Latin hypercube sampling and calibrated against objective response rate (ORR) data from SG Phase I/II TNBC basket trial. The model predicted an ORR of 33.2% consistent with ASCENT study (NCT02574455). Simulations suggest TROP2-mediated delivery contributes modestly to SG efficacy with tumor exposure driven largely by systemically released SN-38 payload being sufficient to induce cytotoxicity. Tumor heterogeneity emerged as a key determinant of response with ORR increasing as the fraction of payload-sensitive clones increased. Overall, this QSP framework for TROP2-targeted ADCs accounts for TNBC heterogeneity and is extendable to other ADCs and targets enabling interrogation of ADC mechanisms of action in conjunction with tumor-immune interactions.
ER -