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Peer-reviewedCC BYNature Communications

Subsidence more than doubles sea-level rise today along densely populated coasts

  • Julius Oelsmann1,2
  • Robert James Nicholls3,4
  • Daniël Lincke5
  • Marta Marcos6
  • Manoochehr Shirzaei7,8,9
  • Laura Sánchez10
  • Leonard Osadebamwen Ohenhen11
  • Denise Dettmering10
  • Jochen Hinkel5,12
  • Benjamin P. Horton13
  • Florian Seitz10
13 affiliations
  1. 1Department of River-Coastal Science and Engineering, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA. [email protected]
  2. 2Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut, Technische Universität München, München, Germany. [email protected]
  3. 3School of Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK
  4. 4Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
  5. 5Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany
  6. 6IMEDEA, (UIB-CSIC), Esporles, Spain
  7. 7Department of Geosciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
  8. 8Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University, Hamilton, ON, Canada
  9. 9Virginia Tech National Security Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA
  10. 10Deutsches Geodätisches Forschungsinstitut, Technische Universität München, München, Germany
  11. 11Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA, USA
  12. 12Resource Economics Group, Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
  13. 13School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, China
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Abstract

Despite its strong influence on relative sea-level (RSL) rise, there is still low confidence in estimates of vertical land motion (VLM) and its contribution to RSL change. To address this problem, we synergize diverse VLM data, which now cover almost 65% of the coastal population, and are key to resolve small scale subsidence, including East, South, and Southeast Asian cities and populated deltaic regions, largely not covered by earlier geodetic measurements. We find that the average modern (1995-2020) global RSL rise experienced by coastal populations (6 mm/year) is about twice the climate-driven absolute sea-level rise. This reflects a strong tendency for higher rates of subsidence in densely populated areas, with 71% of the global coastal population living in subsiding regions. Paired with community efforts to extend consistent observations, these data are essential to ensure reliable estimates of present and future RSL rise to support risk and adaptation assessment.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{oelsmann2026subsidence,
  title = {{Subsidence more than doubles sea-level rise today along densely populated coasts}},
  author = {Julius Oelsmann and Robert James Nicholls and Daniël Lincke and Marta Marcos and Manoochehr Shirzaei and Laura Sánchez and Leonard Osadebamwen Ohenhen and Denise Dettmering and Jochen Hinkel and Benjamin P. Horton and Florian Seitz},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  month = may,
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-72293-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72293-z},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Subsidence more than doubles sea-level rise today along densely populated coasts
AU  - Julius Oelsmann
AU  - Robert James Nicholls
AU  - Daniël Lincke
AU  - Marta Marcos
AU  - Manoochehr Shirzaei
AU  - Laura Sánchez
AU  - Leonard Osadebamwen Ohenhen
AU  - Denise Dettmering
AU  - Jochen Hinkel
AU  - Benjamin P. Horton
AU  - Florian Seitz
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/16
JO  - Nature Communications
DO  - 10.1038/s41467-026-72293-z
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-72293-z
AB  - Despite its strong influence on relative sea-level (RSL) rise, there is still low confidence in estimates of vertical land motion (VLM) and its contribution to RSL change. To address this problem, we synergize diverse VLM data, which now cover almost 65% of the coastal population, and are key to resolve small scale subsidence, including East, South, and Southeast Asian cities and populated deltaic regions, largely not covered by earlier geodetic measurements. We find that the average modern (1995-2020) global RSL rise experienced by coastal populations (6 mm/year) is about twice the climate-driven absolute sea-level rise. This reflects a strong tendency for higher rates of subsidence in densely populated areas, with 71% of the global coastal population living in subsiding regions. Paired with community efforts to extend consistent observations, these data are essential to ensure reliable estimates of present and future RSL rise to support risk and adaptation assessment.
SN  - 2041-1723
ER  -