Physical Characterization of Moon Impactor 2025-010D
Abstract
Renewed interest in lunar exploration is creating a growing population of poorly tracked cislunar objects, some of which will ultimately impact the Moon1. The ultimate fate of rocket upper stages or failed mission payloads is often unknown and unplanned. Determining the origin and physical properties of such objects will become increasingly important as sustained lunar exploration places humans and infrastructure on the surface2;3;4;5. Here we present a ground-based physical and dynamical characterization of 2025-010D, a Falcon 9 upper stage predicted to impact the lunar farside on 2026 August 05. Backward propagation of its orbit independently links the object to the ``Ghost Riders in the Sky'' launch, while visible and near-infrared spectroscopy distinguishes it from natural objects and reveals absorption bands consistent with spacecraft thermal control materials. Photometric lightcurves confirm its elongated shape and reveal an unexpected change of more than 8 s in its ∼7 min rotation period during observations. We predict an impact between Bell and Einstein craters at ∼2.4 km s−1, producing a crater ∼40 m in diameter. Since its provenance is independently known, 2025-010D provides a benchmark for identifying and characterizing future cislunar objects of uncertain origin.
Related
- Physical characterization of Earth's quasi-satellite 2025 PN7
- Designing 3D transfers: application to Earth-Moon
- Observation of the Moon and Sun shadows with cosmic rays at an average energy of 7×1017eV
- Improved Understanding of Lunar Surface Hydration Signatures through Comparison of Thermally Corrected Spectra from the Moon Mineralogy Mapper (M 3)
- From Early Concepts to Lunar Hypertelescopes Roadmap for Next-Generation Optical Astronomy on the Moon
BibTeX
@misc{campbell2026physical,
title = {{Physical Characterization of Moon Impactor 2025-010D}},
author = {Tanner Campbell and Adam Battle and Bill Gray and Juan A. Sanchez and David Cantillo and Lucille LeCorre and Vishnu Reddy},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.00360},
eprint = {2608.00360},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.00360},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Physical Characterization of Moon Impactor 2025-010D
AU - Tanner Campbell
AU - Adam Battle
AU - Bill Gray
AU - Juan A. Sanchez
AU - David Cantillo
AU - Lucille LeCorre
AU - Vishnu Reddy
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/13
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.00360
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.00360
AB - Renewed interest in lunar exploration is creating a growing population of poorly tracked cislunar objects, some of which will ultimately impact the Moon^1. The ultimate fate of rocket upper stages or failed mission payloads is often unknown and unplanned. Determining the origin and physical properties of such objects will become increasingly important as sustained lunar exploration places humans and infrastructure on the surface^2;3;4;5. Here we present a ground-based physical and dynamical characterization of 2025-010D, a Falcon 9 upper stage predicted to impact the lunar farside on 2026 August 05. Backward propagation of its orbit independently links the object to the ``Ghost Riders in the Sky'' launch, while visible and near-infrared spectroscopy distinguishes it from natural objects and reveals absorption bands consistent with spacecraft thermal control materials. Photometric lightcurves confirm its elongated shape and reveal an unexpected change of more than 8 s in its ∼7 min rotation period during observations. We predict an impact between Bell and Einstein craters at ∼2.4 km s^−1, producing a crater ∼40 m in diameter. Since its provenance is independently known, 2025-010D provides a benchmark for identifying and characterizing future cislunar objects of uncertain origin.
ER -