The global hydrogen budget
Abstract
Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2–5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production. Trends in global H2 sources and sinks are analysed from 1990 to 2020, and a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020 is presented.
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BibTeX
@article{ouyang2026global,
title = {{The global hydrogen budget}},
author = {Zutao Ouyang and Robert B. Jackson and Marielle Saunois and Josep G. Canadell and Yuanhong Zhao and Catherine Morfopoulos and Paul B. Krummel and Prabir K. Patra and Glen P. Peters and Fraser Dennison and Thomas Gasser and Alexander T. Archibald and Vivek Arora and Gabriel Baudoin and Naveen Chandra and Philippe Ciais and Steven J. Davis and Sarah Feron and Fangzhou Guo and Didier Hauglustaine and Christopher D. Jones and Matthew W. Jones and Etsushi Kato and Daniel Kennedy and Jürgen Knauer and Sebastian Lienert and Danica Lombardozzi and Joe R. Melton and Julia E.M.S. Nabel and Michael O'Sullivan and Gabrielle Pétron and Benjamin Poulter and Joeri Rogelj and David Sandoval Calle and Pete Smith and Parvadha Suntharalingam and Hanqin Tian and Chenghao Wang and Andy Wiltshire},
journal = {Nature},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05851910v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The global hydrogen budget
AU - Zutao Ouyang
AU - Robert B. Jackson
AU - Marielle Saunois
AU - Josep G. Canadell
AU - Yuanhong Zhao
AU - Catherine Morfopoulos
AU - Paul B. Krummel
AU - Prabir K. Patra
AU - Glen P. Peters
AU - Fraser Dennison
AU - Thomas Gasser
AU - Alexander T. Archibald
AU - Vivek Arora
AU - Gabriel Baudoin
AU - Naveen Chandra
AU - Philippe Ciais
AU - Steven J. Davis
AU - Sarah Feron
AU - Fangzhou Guo
AU - Didier Hauglustaine
AU - Christopher D. Jones
AU - Matthew W. Jones
AU - Etsushi Kato
AU - Daniel Kennedy
AU - Jürgen Knauer
AU - Sebastian Lienert
AU - Danica Lombardozzi
AU - Joe R. Melton
AU - Julia E.M.S. Nabel
AU - Michael O'Sullivan
AU - Gabrielle Pétron
AU - Benjamin Poulter
AU - Joeri Rogelj
AU - David Sandoval Calle
AU - Pete Smith
AU - Parvadha Suntharalingam
AU - Hanqin Tian
AU - Chenghao Wang
AU - Andy Wiltshire
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/04
JO - Nature
DO - 10.1038/s41586-025-09806-1
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05851910v1
AB - Hydrogen (H2) will play a part in decarbonizing the global energy system1. However, hydrogen interacts with methane, ozone, and stratospheric water vapour, leading to an indirect 100-year global warming potential of 11 ± 4 (refs. 2–5). This raises concerns about the climate consequences of increasing H2 use under future hydrogen economies3,5. A comprehensive accounting of H2 sources and sinks is essential for assessing changes and mitigating environmental risks. Here we analyse trends in global H2 sources and sinks from 1990 to 2020 and construct a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020. H2 sources increased from 1990 to 2020, primarily because of the oxidation of methane and anthropogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds, biogenic nitrogen fixation, and leakage from H2 production. Sinks also increased in response to rising atmospheric H2. Estimated global H2 sources and sinks averaged 69.9 ± 9.4 Tg yr−1 and 68.4 ± 18.1 Tg yr−1, respectively, for 2010–2020. Regionally, Africa and South America contained the largest sources and sinks of H2, whereas East Asia and North America contributed the most H2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. We estimate that rising atmospheric H2 between 2010 and 2020 contributed to an increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) of 0.02 ± 0.006 °C. GSAT impacts of changing atmospheric H2 in future marker Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios are estimated to remain within 0.01–0.05 °C, depending on H2 usage, leakage rates and CH4 emissions that influence photochemical H2 production. Trends in global H2 sources and sinks are analysed from 1990 to 2020, and a comprehensive budget for the decade 2010–2020 is presented.
SN - 0028-0836
SN - 1476-4687
ER -