A Behavioral SIQR-B Model for Cholera Transmission: Impact of Adaptive Risk Perception on Disease Dynamics.
- 1Department of Mathematics and GEDNOL, Universidad Tecnológica de Pereira, Pereira 660003, Colombia.
- 2Pulmonology, Clínica de Alta Tecnología, Oncólogos del Occidente, Pereira 660000, Colombia.
- 3School of Medicine, Institución Universitaria Visión de las Américas, Pereira 660001, Colombia.
Abstract
Background/Objectives: Cholera remains a major public health problem, particularly in regions with limited access to safe drinking water and sanitation. Traditional compartmental models may underrepresent adaptive human behavioral responses during outbreaks. This study aims to investigate the epidemiological effects of adaptive risk perception within a deterministic SIQR-B framework for cholera transmission. Methods: We developed a deterministic SIQR-B model incorporating adaptive behavior through a nonlinear risk-perception function that modulates environmental transmission. The model includes susceptible, infected, quarantined, and recovered individuals together with the environmental concentration of Vibrio cholerae. Positivity, boundedness, equilibria, the basic reproduction number, and stability were analyzed, complemented by numerical simulations and robustness analysis across alternative transmission regimes. Results: Under the baseline parameter setting, adaptive behavior reduced the infected peak by 19.03% and delayed its occurrence by approximately 1.13 days. In contrast, cumulative incidence over the 200-day simulation horizon decreased by only approximately 0.033%. Additional simulations across alternative transmission regimes preserved the qualitative effect of adaptive behavior on peak mitigation and epidemic timing, although the magnitude of these effects varied with the transmission configuration and behavioral intensity. Conclusions: Within the proposed theoretical framework, adaptive behavioral feedback primarily mitigates short-term peak burden and alters epidemic timing rather than substantially reducing cumulative transmission. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating behavioral responses into mathematical models of cholera dynamics while recognizing that the quantitative effects depend on the assumed parameter regime.
Related
- Defining epidemiologically relevant units of cholera transmission in sub-Saharan Africa
- From listening to action: how social and behavioral evidence informed multisectoral cholera response in Zambia, 2023–2024
- Integrated pharmaceutical and behavioral strategies for long-term control of RSV transmission: An impulsive SEIRS-type modeling study.
- Effects of an LLM-based intelligent adaptive teaching program on clinical risk perception among newly employed nurses: a quasi-experimental study
- The Master Adaptive Learner Behavioral Assessment Scale (MAL BAS): Development, Validity Evidence, Feasibility, and Acceptability of a New Instrument
BibTeX
@article{alzate2026behavioral,
title = {{A Behavioral SIQR-B Model for Cholera Transmission: Impact of Adaptive Risk Perception on Disease Dynamics.}},
author = {Pedro Pablo Cárdenas Alzate and Jaime Alberto Echeverri Franco and Jacobo Echeverri Hoyos},
journal = {Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3390/epidemiologia7050142},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42930330},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - A Behavioral SIQR-B Model for Cholera Transmission: Impact of Adaptive Risk Perception on Disease Dynamics.
AU - Pedro Pablo Cárdenas Alzate
AU - Jaime Alberto Echeverri Franco
AU - Jacobo Echeverri Hoyos
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/09
JO - Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)
DO - 10.3390/epidemiologia7050142
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42930330
AB - Background/Objectives: Cholera remains a major public health problem, particularly in regions with limited access to safe drinking water and sanitation. Traditional compartmental models may underrepresent adaptive human behavioral responses during outbreaks. This study aims to investigate the epidemiological effects of adaptive risk perception within a deterministic SIQR-B framework for cholera transmission. Methods: We developed a deterministic SIQR-B model incorporating adaptive behavior through a nonlinear risk-perception function that modulates environmental transmission. The model includes susceptible, infected, quarantined, and recovered individuals together with the environmental concentration of Vibrio cholerae. Positivity, boundedness, equilibria, the basic reproduction number, and stability were analyzed, complemented by numerical simulations and robustness analysis across alternative transmission regimes. Results: Under the baseline parameter setting, adaptive behavior reduced the infected peak by 19.03% and delayed its occurrence by approximately 1.13 days. In contrast, cumulative incidence over the 200-day simulation horizon decreased by only approximately 0.033%. Additional simulations across alternative transmission regimes preserved the qualitative effect of adaptive behavior on peak mitigation and epidemic timing, although the magnitude of these effects varied with the transmission configuration and behavioral intensity. Conclusions: Within the proposed theoretical framework, adaptive behavioral feedback primarily mitigates short-term peak burden and alters epidemic timing rather than substantially reducing cumulative transmission. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating behavioral responses into mathematical models of cholera dynamics while recognizing that the quantitative effects depend on the assumed parameter regime.
SN - 2673-3986
ER -