The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change
- 1Hydrologic Science and Egineering Program, Colorado School of Mines
- 2Department of Earth Sciences, Montana State University
- 3Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming
Abstract
In the spring of 2026, anomalously low snow conditions in the western United States threatened winter recreation and water supplies. Here, we investigate: to what extent was this snow drought attributable to the climate change that has occurred since the pre-industrial period? We find that a snow drought this severe across the western United States was approximately 4.4 [95% CI: 2.6, 9.4] times more likely in the current climate than in the preindustrial period. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, the snow drought was approximately 14 times more likely [0.09, 4,300]. Given a projected increase in the frequency of snow droughts at least this severe in a moderately high emissions warming scenario, the lived experience of this event may help scientists, resource managers, and the public consider what western US snow might look like if greenhouse gas emissions are not aggressively reduced.
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BibTeX
@article{marshall20262026,
title = {{The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change}},
author = {Adrienne M. Marshall and Marianne Cowherd and Stefan Rahimi and Yuhong Ye},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2612961123},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2612961123},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The 2026 western US snow drought was about four times more likely due to climate change
AU - Adrienne M. Marshall
AU - Marianne Cowherd
AU - Stefan Rahimi
AU - Yuhong Ye
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/20
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2612961123
UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2612961123
AB - In the spring of 2026, anomalously low snow conditions in the western United States threatened winter recreation and water supplies. Here, we investigate: to what extent was this snow drought attributable to the climate change that has occurred since the pre-industrial period? We find that a snow drought this severe across the western United States was approximately 4.4 [95% CI: 2.6, 9.4] times more likely in the current climate than in the preindustrial period. In the Upper Colorado River Basin, the snow drought was approximately 14 times more likely [0.09, 4,300]. Given a projected increase in the frequency of snow droughts at least this severe in a moderately high emissions warming scenario, the lived experience of this event may help scientists, resource managers, and the public consider what western US snow might look like if greenhouse gas emissions are not aggressively reduced.
SN - 0027-8424
SN - 1091-6490
ER -