Delayed Coal Plant Retirements in the Era of Data Centers Carry a Measurable Mortality Cost
- 1Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Abstract
Coal-fired power plants remain a major source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and mortality in the United States. Announced retirement dates mark when those burdens are expected to end, but rising electricity demand, partly from data centers supporting cloud computing and artificial intelligence, has led utilities and regulators to revisit them. Of 50 coal plants scheduled in January 2024 to retire before 2035, 20 had later or removed dates by January 2026. Projecting coal PM2.5 and mortality among Medicare beneficiaries from the 20 plants for 2026-2035, we estimate the revised schedule would result in 1,256 additional deaths (1,136 to 1,376), raising mortality to 3.1 times the original burden. Eighteen plants operate in balancing authorities with hyperscale data-center demand, and federal orders and utility filings supporting several plants operation cited data-center growth. Retirement schedules are revised faster than health consequences are assessed, and those delays carry a measurable mortality cost.
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BibTeX
@misc{bong2026delayed,
title = {{Delayed Coal Plant Retirements in the Era of Data Centers Carry a Measurable Mortality Cost}},
author = {S. Bong and G. Gianluca and M. Cork and L. R. Henneman and F. Dominici},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.29.26364336},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.29.26364336v1},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Delayed Coal Plant Retirements in the Era of Data Centers Carry a Measurable Mortality Cost
AU - S. Bong
AU - G. Gianluca
AU - M. Cork
AU - L. R. Henneman
AU - F. Dominici
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/29
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.29.26364336
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.29.26364336v1
AB - Coal-fired power plants remain a major source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure and mortality in the United States. Announced retirement dates mark when those burdens are expected to end, but rising electricity demand, partly from data centers supporting cloud computing and artificial intelligence, has led utilities and regulators to revisit them. Of 50 coal plants scheduled in January 2024 to retire before 2035, 20 had later or removed dates by January 2026. Projecting coal PM2.5 and mortality among Medicare beneficiaries from the 20 plants for 2026-2035, we estimate the revised schedule would result in 1,256 additional deaths (1,136 to 1,376), raising mortality to 3.1 times the original burden. Eighteen plants operate in balancing authorities with hyperscale data-center demand, and federal orders and utility filings supporting several plants operation cited data-center growth. Retirement schedules are revised faster than health consequences are assessed, and those delays carry a measurable mortality cost.
ER -