From zooplankton to market: participatory scenarios to identify adaptations for the future of small pelagic social-ecological system in the Bay of Biscay
Abstract
Participatory scenario planning (PSP) has proved powerful to anticipate and prepare for the challenges of climate change at global and regional scales. It is, however, seldom considered as an operational tool faced with complex and uncertain problems of local ecosystem-based fisheries management. For the last decade, French fishers and canning industries in the Bay of Biscay (BoB) have faced such a problem with the decline of size at age and body condition of sardines, likely driven by changes in the zooplankton community. The trend jeopardizes the sustainability of exploitation both biologically and economically, pushing the actors to reflect on necessary adaptations in the face of an uncertain future. We conducted PSP with scientists and stakeholders of the sardine sector in the BoB to anticipate alternative plausible trajectories and envision adaptation strategies for the fishing fleets and canning industries. Nine narratives of the near future of the sardine sector were built and consolidated collectively, then completed with preferred directions for adaptations to reach the respective goals of the participants. The narrow scope of the question addressed, limited to a short time horizon and a local fishery, did not prevent PSP from providing usual benefits such as social learning and creative thinking. Furthermore, the diversity of the participants, scientists of different disciplines and representatives of the fishing sector, producers, and processors resulted in very tangible, detailed, and subtle scenarios, anchored to stakeholders’ direct concerns and interests and supported by scientific knowledge. The shared objective of more predictable and stable resource availability, quality, prices, and outlets led to the consideration of a diversity of scientific and economic levers, often requiring collective action. Discussions focused on controllable aspects and possible actions, therefore likely to ensure greater empowerment and impact than higher-scale exercises.
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BibTeX
@article{bourdaud2026from,
title = {{From zooplankton to market: participatory scenarios to identify adaptations for the future of small pelagic social-ecological system in the Bay of Biscay}},
author = {Pierre Bourdaud and Martin Huret and Morgane Travers-Trolet and Sigrid Lehuta},
journal = {Aquatic Living Resources},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1051/alr/2026027},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05854098v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - From zooplankton to market: participatory scenarios to identify adaptations for the future of small pelagic social-ecological system in the Bay of Biscay
AU - Pierre Bourdaud
AU - Martin Huret
AU - Morgane Travers-Trolet
AU - Sigrid Lehuta
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/05
JO - Aquatic Living Resources
DO - 10.1051/alr/2026027
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05854098v1
AB - Participatory scenario planning (PSP) has proved powerful to anticipate and prepare for the challenges of climate change at global and regional scales. It is, however, seldom considered as an operational tool faced with complex and uncertain problems of local ecosystem-based fisheries management. For the last decade, French fishers and canning industries in the Bay of Biscay (BoB) have faced such a problem with the decline of size at age and body condition of sardines, likely driven by changes in the zooplankton community. The trend jeopardizes the sustainability of exploitation both biologically and economically, pushing the actors to reflect on necessary adaptations in the face of an uncertain future. We conducted PSP with scientists and stakeholders of the sardine sector in the BoB to anticipate alternative plausible trajectories and envision adaptation strategies for the fishing fleets and canning industries. Nine narratives of the near future of the sardine sector were built and consolidated collectively, then completed with preferred directions for adaptations to reach the respective goals of the participants. The narrow scope of the question addressed, limited to a short time horizon and a local fishery, did not prevent PSP from providing usual benefits such as social learning and creative thinking. Furthermore, the diversity of the participants, scientists of different disciplines and representatives of the fishing sector, producers, and processors resulted in very tangible, detailed, and subtle scenarios, anchored to stakeholders’ direct concerns and interests and supported by scientific knowledge. The shared objective of more predictable and stable resource availability, quality, prices, and outlets led to the consideration of a diversity of scientific and economic levers, often requiring collective action. Discussions focused on controllable aspects and possible actions, therefore likely to ensure greater empowerment and impact than higher-scale exercises.
SN - 0990-7440
SN - 1765-2952
ER -