Risk Characterization for a Multi‐Pathway Quantitative Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study on Extended‐Spectrum Beta‐Lactamas Producing E. coli Spread From Broiler Production
Abstract
This article revisits the risk characterization phase in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) and proposes a methodological framework to translate probabilistic risk estimates into easily interpretable public health metrics, thereby facilitating risk communication. This framework adopts a top-down perspective, aiming to estimate the public health burden on a particular population associated with the exposure to a specific microbial hazard originating from a predefined production process. Such an approach is useful for risk managers to compare the relative health impacts of a food production system under different scenarios. It also allows a mathematically rigorous use of QMRA model outputs, even when model validation is constrained by unavoidable data and knowledge gaps. The proposed approach is illustrated using a multi-pathway QMRA model from the literature, assessing the transmission of Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) to humans through broiler production. Under a baseline scenario defined by a parameterized production system and for a given population, the proposed approach classifies different exposure pathways according to their per-individual risk of colonization, while accounting for the proportion of the general population exposed to each pathway.
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BibTeX
@article{basak2026risk,
title = {{Risk Characterization for a Multi‐Pathway Quantitative Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study on Extended‐Spectrum Beta‐Lactamas Producing E. coli Spread From Broiler Production}},
author = {Subhasish Basak and Nunzio Sarnino and Lucie Collineau},
journal = {Risk Analysis},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1111/risa.70372},
url = {https://anses.hal.science/anses-05796586v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Risk Characterization for a Multi‐Pathway Quantitative Risk Assessment Model: A Case Study on Extended‐Spectrum Beta‐Lactamas Producing E. coli Spread From Broiler Production
AU - Subhasish Basak
AU - Nunzio Sarnino
AU - Lucie Collineau
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/29
JO - Risk Analysis
DO - 10.1111/risa.70372
UR - https://anses.hal.science/anses-05796586v1
AB - This article revisits the risk characterization phase in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) and proposes a methodological framework to translate probabilistic risk estimates into easily interpretable public health metrics, thereby facilitating risk communication. This framework adopts a top-down perspective, aiming to estimate the public health burden on a particular population associated with the exposure to a specific microbial hazard originating from a predefined production process. Such an approach is useful for risk managers to compare the relative health impacts of a food production system under different scenarios. It also allows a mathematically rigorous use of QMRA model outputs, even when model validation is constrained by unavoidable data and knowledge gaps. The proposed approach is illustrated using a multi-pathway QMRA model from the literature, assessing the transmission of Extended-Spectrum Beta-Lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli (E. coli) to humans through broiler production. Under a baseline scenario defined by a parameterized production system and for a given population, the proposed approach classifies different exposure pathways according to their per-individual risk of colonization, while accounting for the proportion of the general population exposed to each pathway.
SN - 0272-4332
SN - 1539-6924
ER -