The macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China, 1990-2023, and projections to 2030: results from GBD 2023.
- 1Beijing Huilongguan Hospital, Capital medical university, Peking University HuiLongGuan Clinical Medical School, Beijing, China.
- 2Precision and Intelligence Medical Imaging Lab, Beijing Friendship Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
- 3Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK Oxford.
Abstract
Background
Alcohol consumption contributes markedly to the global burden of disease, but macroeconomic assessments of alcohol-attributable diseases in China remain limited. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, this study quantified the macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China: alcohol use disorders (AUD), alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM), cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use (ALD), and liver cancer due to alcohol use (LCA).Materials and methods
Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) data for the four diseases from 1990 to 2023 were extracted from GBD 2023. The macroeconomic burden was estimated using the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which combined DALYs with age-adjusted value of a statistical life year (VSLY) estimates derived from willingness-to-pay methodology. Results are expressed in 2021 international dollars and as a percentage of GDP. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression analysis, and exploratory forecasts to 2030 were generated using ARIMA, XGBoost, and LightGBM models.Results
From 1990 to 2023, VLW increased substantially for all four diseases: AUD from $1.84 billion to $32.40 billion; ACM, $0.04 to $0.53 billion; ALD, $0.22 to $3.26 billion; and LCA, $0.09 to $2.48 billion. Joinpoint regression confirmed continuously increasing trends (all AAPC > 0, all p < 0.001). Males predominated across all conditions, with male-to-female VLW ratios of 7:1 (AUD), 10:1 (ALD), 3:1 (LCA), and 14:1 (ACM) in 2023. Age at peak VLW varied: 35-39 years for AUD, 50-59 years for ALD, 65-69 years for LCA, and 50-54 years for ACM (shifted from 35-39 years in 1990). Conditional on the continuation of their respective historical trends, the three models produced divergent exploratory projections to 2030.Conclusion
The macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China increased markedly from 1990 to 2023, with AUD consistently dominating and the burden overwhelmingly concentrated among males aged 35-64 years.
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BibTeX
@article{yang2026macroeconomic,
title = {{The macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China, 1990-2023, and projections to 2030: results from GBD 2023.}},
author = {Xue Yang and Limin Xin and Jianjin Yu and Qingyan Yang and Yanfeng Gong and Zhaoyu Guo and Kebing Yang},
journal = {Annals of medicine},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1080/07853890.2026.2741441},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42886576},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China, 1990-2023, and projections to 2030: results from GBD 2023.
AU - Xue Yang
AU - Limin Xin
AU - Jianjin Yu
AU - Qingyan Yang
AU - Yanfeng Gong
AU - Zhaoyu Guo
AU - Kebing Yang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/16
JO - Annals of medicine
DO - 10.1080/07853890.2026.2741441
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42886576
AB - Background Alcohol consumption contributes markedly to the global burden of disease, but macroeconomic assessments of alcohol-attributable diseases in China remain limited. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data, this study quantified the macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China: alcohol use disorders (AUD), alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM), cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases due to alcohol use (ALD), and liver cancer due to alcohol use (LCA).Materials and methods Disability-adjusted life year (DALY) data for the four diseases from 1990 to 2023 were extracted from GBD 2023. The macroeconomic burden was estimated using the value of lost welfare (VLW) approach, which combined DALYs with age-adjusted value of a statistical life year (VSLY) estimates derived from willingness-to-pay methodology. Results are expressed in 2021 international dollars and as a percentage of GDP. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression analysis, and exploratory forecasts to 2030 were generated using ARIMA, XGBoost, and LightGBM models.Results From 1990 to 2023, VLW increased substantially for all four diseases: AUD from $1.84 billion to $32.40 billion; ACM, $0.04 to $0.53 billion; ALD, $0.22 to $3.26 billion; and LCA, $0.09 to $2.48 billion. Joinpoint regression confirmed continuously increasing trends (all AAPC > 0, all p < 0.001). Males predominated across all conditions, with male-to-female VLW ratios of 7:1 (AUD), 10:1 (ALD), 3:1 (LCA), and 14:1 (ACM) in 2023. Age at peak VLW varied: 35-39 years for AUD, 50-59 years for ALD, 65-69 years for LCA, and 50-54 years for ACM (shifted from 35-39 years in 1990). Conditional on the continuation of their respective historical trends, the three models produced divergent exploratory projections to 2030.Conclusion The macroeconomic burden of four alcohol-attributable diseases in China increased markedly from 1990 to 2023, with AUD consistently dominating and the burden overwhelmingly concentrated among males aged 35-64 years.
SN - 0785-3890
SN - 1365-2060
ER -