Milk Production and Climate Variability in a High-Andean Dairy System: A Longitudinal Case Study.
- 1Universidad Politécnica Estatal del Carchi, Antisana St. and Universitaria, Ave., Tulcán 040102, Carchi, Ecuador.
- 2Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas, Universidad Central del Ecuador, Quito 170129, Pichincha, Ecuador.
Abstract
Climatic variability can modify milk production through direct and indirect pathways, yet monthly farm time series also exhibit temporal dependence. A longitudinal, observational, single-case study was conducted in the San Francisco dairy system, Carchi, Ecuador, from March 2019 to December 2024. Of 70 calendar months, 64 had complete analytical information, and 58 were eligible for two-lag models. Ten model specifications were compared based on model fit, information criteria, residual diagnostics, seasonality assessment, and temporal validation. Mean daily milk production was 233.49 ± 47.90 L day⁻¹. The selected model was a second-order autoregressive model with a calendar trend and mean temperature at t - 2 (adjusted R2 = 0.827; Akaike information criterion = 519.52; Bayesian information criterion = 529.83; root mean squared error = 19.56 L day⁻¹). The temperature coefficient was 10.844 L day⁻¹ °C⁻¹ (p < 0.001 with robust standard errors). Annual harmonic terms did not improve model fit, and precipitation at t - 1 yielded only marginal improvement. The number of cows in production varied across 54 months (26.02 ± 4.11; range: 18-37). The observed temperature association should be interpreted at the system level; it does not demonstrate direct causality or individual cow productivity and requires external validation.
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BibTeX
@article{montenegroarellano2026milk,
title = {{Milk Production and Climate Variability in a High-Andean Dairy System: A Longitudinal Case Study.}},
author = {Guillermo Fausto Montenegro-Arellano and Luis Alfredo Carvajal-Pérez and Gladys Primavera Urgilés-Urgilés and Pablo David Quishpe-Sinailin and Anibal Eduardo Herrera-Lana},
journal = {Animals : an open access journal from MDPI},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3390/ani16203169},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42939100},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Milk Production and Climate Variability in a High-Andean Dairy System: A Longitudinal Case Study.
AU - Guillermo Fausto Montenegro-Arellano
AU - Luis Alfredo Carvajal-Pérez
AU - Gladys Primavera Urgilés-Urgilés
AU - Pablo David Quishpe-Sinailin
AU - Anibal Eduardo Herrera-Lana
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/09
JO - Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
DO - 10.3390/ani16203169
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42939100
AB - Climatic variability can modify milk production through direct and indirect pathways, yet monthly farm time series also exhibit temporal dependence. A longitudinal, observational, single-case study was conducted in the San Francisco dairy system, Carchi, Ecuador, from March 2019 to December 2024. Of 70 calendar months, 64 had complete analytical information, and 58 were eligible for two-lag models. Ten model specifications were compared based on model fit, information criteria, residual diagnostics, seasonality assessment, and temporal validation. Mean daily milk production was 233.49 ± 47.90 L day⁻¹. The selected model was a second-order autoregressive model with a calendar trend and mean temperature at t - 2 (adjusted R2 = 0.827; Akaike information criterion = 519.52; Bayesian information criterion = 529.83; root mean squared error = 19.56 L day⁻¹). The temperature coefficient was 10.844 L day⁻¹ °C⁻¹ (p < 0.001 with robust standard errors). Annual harmonic terms did not improve model fit, and precipitation at t - 1 yielded only marginal improvement. The number of cows in production varied across 54 months (26.02 ± 4.11; range: 18-37). The observed temperature association should be interpreted at the system level; it does not demonstrate direct causality or individual cow productivity and requires external validation.
SN - 2076-2615
ER -