Variation in social contact levels and changes during the COVID-19 pandemic by occupation and socio-economic status in east Zimbabwe
- 1University College London
Abstract
BackgroundCOVID-19 movement restrictions reduced social contact worldwide, curbing viral spread but with unequal economic consequences where social safety nets are limited. Little evidence exists on how these impacts varied by occupation, wealth and age in resource-constrained settings. This paper examined pre-pandemic contact and lockdown-related change.
MethodsThe paper documents analysis of a population-representative survey (N=8,499) in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, during April-May 2021, capturing typical weekday contacts before and during the first COVID-19 lockdown. Negative binomial regression models assessed pre-lockdown contact counts by socio-economic characteristics, overall and by place (home, school, work, transport, entertainment); linear regression assessed predictors of lockdown declines.
ResultsPre-COVID-19, respondents reported a median of 12 daily contacts (interquartile range [IQR] 4-47), with higher counts among manual labourers (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.00, 2.44), retail and public sector workers (IRR 2.33, 95%CI 2.09, 2.60) and students (IRR 2.59, 95%CI 2.38, 2.82), males, wealthier respondents, under-30s, and urban and agricultural estate residents. Counts were highest in schools. During lockdown, contacts fell across all subgroups to a median of 8 (IQR 4-28). Declines were greatest among those with most pre-COVID-19 contacts: urban (mean -17.5, 95%CI -19.53, -15.37) and agricultural estate residents (-18.1, 95%CI -19.99, - 16.13), students and teachers (-17.7, 95%CI -19.82, -15.59), males and 30-44 year olds. Drops were greatest in schools and on transport.
ConclusionReductions in contact under blanket lockdown varied markedly between subgroups and places in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Selectively targeting high-contact groups might have achieved similar transmission reductions while limiting economic damage, holding lessons for similar settings.
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BibTeX
@misc{ayling2026variation,
title = {{Variation in social contact levels and changes during the COVID-19 pandemic by occupation and socio-economic status in east Zimbabwe}},
author = {S. Ayling and C. Nyamukapa and R. Maswera and L. Moorhouse and R. Morris and B. Moyo and A. Melegaro and O. Mugurungi and H. Fry and S. Wise and G. Harling and S. Gregson},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.64898/2026.10.04.26364721},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364721v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Variation in social contact levels and changes during the COVID-19 pandemic by occupation and socio-economic status in east Zimbabwe
AU - S. Ayling
AU - C. Nyamukapa
AU - R. Maswera
AU - L. Moorhouse
AU - R. Morris
AU - B. Moyo
AU - A. Melegaro
AU - O. Mugurungi
AU - H. Fry
AU - S. Wise
AU - G. Harling
AU - S. Gregson
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/04
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.10.04.26364721
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.04.26364721v1
AB - BackgroundCOVID-19 movement restrictions reduced social contact worldwide, curbing viral spread but with unequal economic consequences where social safety nets are limited. Little evidence exists on how these impacts varied by occupation, wealth and age in resource-constrained settings. This paper examined pre-pandemic contact and lockdown-related change. MethodsThe paper documents analysis of a population-representative survey (N=8,499) in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, during April-May 2021, capturing typical weekday contacts before and during the first COVID-19 lockdown. Negative binomial regression models assessed pre-lockdown contact counts by socio-economic characteristics, overall and by place (home, school, work, transport, entertainment); linear regression assessed predictors of lockdown declines. ResultsPre-COVID-19, respondents reported a median of 12 daily contacts (interquartile range [IQR] 4-47), with higher counts among manual labourers (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.00, 2.44), retail and public sector workers (IRR 2.33, 95%CI 2.09, 2.60) and students (IRR 2.59, 95%CI 2.38, 2.82), males, wealthier respondents, under-30s, and urban and agricultural estate residents. Counts were highest in schools. During lockdown, contacts fell across all subgroups to a median of 8 (IQR 4-28). Declines were greatest among those with most pre-COVID-19 contacts: urban (mean -17.5, 95%CI -19.53, -15.37) and agricultural estate residents (-18.1, 95%CI -19.99, - 16.13), students and teachers (-17.7, 95%CI -19.82, -15.59), males and 30-44 year olds. Drops were greatest in schools and on transport. ConclusionReductions in contact under blanket lockdown varied markedly between subgroups and places in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Selectively targeting high-contact groups might have achieved similar transmission reductions while limiting economic damage, holding lessons for similar settings.
ER -